St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds

● quote 51 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $234.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $723.4KEvent: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets11Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:195 trades$269.4K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 65 min agoofficial metadata 38 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$4.6K·5 wallets(1🐋)·$41.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCincinnati Reds (NO)$14.3K@ 71¢·coinlaundry

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$22.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$22.6K
6h
+$35.7K
tracked
$269.4K

5 verified profitable wallets: +$4.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +74.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 51 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 65 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 38 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-27 16:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds, scheduled for August 20 at 12:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "St. Louis Cardinals" if the St. Louis Cardinals win the game. This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
SDTrading2 linked markets · $68.7K gross
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $44.5K gross
0x5e94…5ba12 linked markets · $38.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL Cincinnati Reds@ 74.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +63.2pp
Latest book event: YES UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $10.5K$4.5K · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$22.6K
6h+$35.7K
24h+$49.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h49.0¢▲ above by 50.9pp
VWAP 7d49.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$5.6K
90¢
$20.1K
85¢
$8.3K
80¢
$1.5K
75¢
$13.2K
70¢
$8.7K
65¢
$21.5K
60¢
$9.3K
55¢
$5.9K
50¢
$58.5K
45¢
$340
40¢
$0
35¢
$1.9K
30¢
$32.8K
25¢
$34.5K
20¢
$22.7K
15¢
$11.7K
10¢
$13.0K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLCincinnati Reds (NO)$13.6K@ 68.0¢0x8853…c058🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYCincinnati Reds (NO)$14.3K@ 71.0¢
coinlaundry0xe8d7…1252
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYSt. Louis Cardinals (YES)$10.0K@ 65.0¢0x1e38…fd47🐋about 4 hours ago
BUYSt. Louis Cardinals (YES)$10.0K@ 51.0¢
dv-pm0x56ac…d77e
🐋about 9 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5268…135dSt. Louis Cardinals$22.1K
BUY VWAP 54.7¢·8 fills
0x5268…135dCincinnati Reds$18.6K
BUY VWAP 70.3¢·4 fills
coinlaundryCincinnati Reds$16.3K
BUY VWAP 70.9¢·3 fills
0x1b47…d814St. Louis Cardinals$12.4K
BUY VWAP 52.4¢·2 fills
curieCincinnati Reds$11.9K
BUY VWAP 37.2¢·9 fills
dv-pmSt. Louis Cardinals$10.0K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill
0x1e38…fd47St. Louis Cardinals$10.0K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.