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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

● quote 98 min ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $257.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $336.3KEvent: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
19.5¢
YES
80.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection16Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets77Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority64Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:115 trades$157.4K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 106 min agoofficial metadata 101 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$21.7K·5 wallets(1🐋)·$28.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYArizona Diamondbacks (NO)$20.5K@ 44¢·BreakTheBank

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$24.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$24.9K
6h
−$39.5K
tracked
$157.4K

5 verified profitable wallets: +$21.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 64

Since latest large flow: +14.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 98 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 106 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 101 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 14.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-16 20:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks, scheduled for August 9 at 4:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Los Angeles Dodgers" if the Los Angeles Dodgers win the game. This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Arizona Diamondbacks@ 67.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +16.0pp1h CONFIRMED +11.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Arizona Diamondbacks@ 45.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Los Angeles Dodgers@ 57.0¢9h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h INVALIDATED -32.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $11.7K → $6.4K · 11s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$24.9K
6h−$39.5K
24h−$16.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current19.5¢
VWAP 24h46.1¢▼ below by 26.6pp
VWAP 7d46.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$33.8K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
← now
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYLos Angeles Dodgers (YES)$17.4K@ 58.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—about 11 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AV23IUaLos Angeles Dodgers$17.4K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.