Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies

● quote 13 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $174.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $576.1KEvent: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets99Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:339 trades$283.8K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 27 min agoofficial metadata 18 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $77.2K·5 wallets(3🐋)·$77.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$28.7K@ 81¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$18.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$18.0K
6h
−$177.8K
tracked
$283.8K

5 verified profitable wallets: −$77.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest liquidity absorption: +33.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 13 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 27 minutes old.
  • Executable BUY price moved 33.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-16 17:35 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Toronto Blue Jays and Philadelphia Phillies, scheduled for August 9 at 1:35PM ET: This market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays" if the Toronto Blue Jays win the game. This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Philadelphia Phillies@ 67.0¢37m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Philadelphia Phillies@ 56.7¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -20.8pp
LARGE FLOWSELL Philadelphia Phillies@ 58.7¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +20.7pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Philadelphia Phillies@ 97.9¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -8.9pp1h INVALIDATED -14.9pp
Latest book event: YES UP 12.2pp · near-book depth $3.8K$1.1K · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$18.0K
6h$177.8K
24h$193.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h22.4¢▼ below by 22.4pp
VWAP 7d22.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$93
60¢
$144
55¢
$3.6K
50¢
$178
45¢
$10.6K
40¢
$10.5K
35¢
$16.1K
30¢
$86.2K
25¢
$16.4K
20¢
$26
15¢
$52.0K
10¢
$18.6K
5¢
$10.0K
0¢
← now
$59.2K

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$25.0K@ 99.9¢
Feromont0xabb8…bba3
🐋27 minutes ago
BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$28.7K@ 81.1¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 1 hour ago
SELLPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$10.1K@ 81.9¢
0b1fe0x9bb1…4dbe
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$10.0K@ 51.2¢0xf689…9d83🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$24.3K@ 97.0¢
0b1fe0x9bb1…4dbe
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$12.2K@ 73.0¢
RN10x2005…75ea
🐋about 4 hours ago
BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$20.2K@ 68.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$13.2K@ 66.0¢0x5cae…a00a🐋about 7 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Philadelphia Phillies$28.7K
BUY VWAP 81.1¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Philadelphia Phillies$26.3K
BUY VWAP 69.1¢·3 fills
0b1fePhiladelphia Phillies$24.3K
BUY VWAP 97.0¢·1 fill
0x5268…135dPhiladelphia Phillies$21.6K
BUY VWAP 64.9¢·7 fills
RN1Philadelphia Phillies$16.2K
BUY VWAP 74.8¢·3 fills
FeromontPhiladelphia Phillies$16.0K
BUY VWAP 69.3¢·3 fills
quavooPhiladelphia Phillies$15.5K
BUY VWAP 68.0¢·27 fills
0x5cae…a00aPhiladelphia Phillies$13.2K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·1 fill
0xf689…9d83Philadelphia Phillies$10.0K
BUY VWAP 51.2¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.