Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants

● quote 43 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $214.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $655.6KEvent: Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants
44.5¢
YES
55.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection18Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets12Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority51Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:149 trades$304.3K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 46 min agoofficial metadata 44 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $4.4K·5 wallets(1🐋)·$36.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSan Francisco Giants (NO)$52.4K@ 47¢·0x5e94…5ba1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$55.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$55.5K
6h
+$89.8K
tracked
$304.3K

5 verified profitable wallets: −$4.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 51

Since latest accumulation: -7.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 43 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 46 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 44 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-16 20:05 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Detroit Tigers and San Francisco Giants, scheduled for August 9 at 4:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Detroit Tigers" if the Detroit Tigers win the game. This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3dfb…abaf2 linked markets · $157.2K gross
0x5e94…5ba12 linked markets · $121.2K gross
0x5268…135d3 linked markets · $25.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Detroit Tigers@ 52.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +22.0pp
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Detroit Tigers@ 55.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +19.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Detroit Tigers@ 52.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +19.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Detroit Tigers@ 54.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h INVALIDATED -4.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 3.5pp · near-book depth $46.0K$73 · 17s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$55.5K
6h+$89.8K
24h+$101.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current44.5¢
VWAP 24h55.9¢▼ below by 11.4pp
VWAP 7d55.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$10
70¢
$21.7K
65¢
$34.9K
60¢
$13.8K
55¢
$44.9K
50¢
$170.2K
45¢
$10.8K
40¢
← now
$2
35¢
$6.5K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYDetroit Tigers (YES)$34.9K@ 65.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYDetroit Tigers (YES)$11.2K@ 63.0¢
curie0xd1ed…d7cb
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYDetroit Tigers (YES)$11.1K@ 50.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYDetroit Tigers (YES)$11.3K@ 51.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYDetroit Tigers (YES)$30.6K@ 55.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYSan Francisco Giants (NO)$11.8K@ 47.0¢
Feromont0xabb8…bba3
🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYDetroit Tigers (YES)$15.0K@ 54.0¢0xeafc…e4c4🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYDetroit Tigers (YES)$30.0K@ 54.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYSan Francisco Giants (NO)$52.4K@ 47.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafDetroit Tigers$135.8K
BUY VWAP 56.1¢·9 fills
0x5e94…5ba1San Francisco Giants$57.1K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·2 fills
0xeafc…e4c4Detroit Tigers$15.0K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill
FeromontDetroit Tigers$12.8K
BUY VWAP 71.1¢·2 fills
curieDetroit Tigers$12.4K
BUY VWAP 63.1¢·2 fills
FeromontSan Francisco Giants$11.8K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.