LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner

● quote 1007 min ago
SportsCloses: about 14 hoursLiquidity: $1.3MOfficial 24h Vol: $562.3KEvent: LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
99.9¢
YES
1.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection36Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:74 trades$74.7K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 13%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1033 min agoofficial metadata 996 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLBilibili Gaming (YES)$26.9K@ 100¢·0x3954…22d9

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$27.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$27.0K
6h
+$9.2K
tracked
$74.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$18 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 1007 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 1033 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 996 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-08 17:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Bilibili Gaming and EDward Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for August 8 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Bilibili Gaming" if Bilibili Gaming win Game 1 against EDward Gaming. This market will resolve to "EDward Gaming" if EDward Gaming win Game 1 against Bilibili Gaming. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3954…22d93 linked markets · $96.0K gross
retroactivesource3 linked markets · $53.5K gross
0xcae6…4f852 linked markets · $23.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Bilibili Gaming@ 92.0¢20h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $91$35 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$27.0K
6h+$9.2K
24h+$9.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h88.8¢▲ above by 11.1pp
VWAP 7d88.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$33.5K
90¢
$277
85¢
$420
80¢
$15.1K
75¢
$25.4K
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLBilibili Gaming (YES)$26.9K@ 99.9¢0x3954…22d9🐋about 17 hours ago
BUYBilibili Gaming (YES)$10.0K@ 80.0¢0x3954…22d9🐋about 20 hours ago
BUYBilibili Gaming (YES)$11.4K@ 79.0¢0x3954…22d9🐋about 20 hours ago
BUYBilibili Gaming (YES)$13.6K@ 79.7¢
retroactivesource0x85d5…45ee
🐋about 20 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3954…22d9Bilibili Gaming$21.4K
BUY VWAP 79.5¢·2 fills
retroactivesourceBilibili Gaming$13.6K
BUY VWAP 79.7¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.