UFC Fight Night: Billy Ray Goff vs. Ty Miller (Welterweight, Prelims)

● quote 438 min ago

Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $321.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $735.4KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Billy Ray Goff vs. Ty Miller (Welterweight, Prelims)

0.1¢

YES

99.9¢

0.1¢

Spread

anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 52%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:47 trades$46.7K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 6%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 457 min agoofficial metadata 425 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $38.8K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$38.8K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTy Miller (NO)$35.5K@ 79¢·surfandturf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

NO pressure: −$6.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

−$6.8K

−$42.4K

tracked

$46.7K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$38.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?

0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 52% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
•Executable quote is 438 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 457 minutes old.
•Official market metadata is 425 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

resolved

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-08-09 03:59 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Billy Ray Goff" if Billy Ray Goff is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ty Miller at UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld, scheduled for August 8, 2026. It will resolve to "Ty Miller" if Ty Miller is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 22, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Ty Miller8h ago

Outcome checks pending

ANTI CHASEBUY Ty Miller8h ago

Outcome checks pending

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Ty Miller@ 79.0¢8h ago

15m STALLED +1.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE

LARGE FLOWBUY Ty Miller@ 79.0¢8h ago

15m STALLED +1.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE

Latest book event: YES UP 6.0pp · near-book depth $447 → $737 · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h−$6.8K

6h−$42.4K

24h−$42.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current0.1¢

VWAP 24h19.9¢▼ below by 19.8pp

VWAP 7d19.9¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

60¢

55¢