National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang

● quote 1562 min ago
GeopoliticsCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $323.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $716.3KEvent: National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang
1.6¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection25Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYShuai Zhang (NO)$10.0K@ 38¢·0x7d6d…2654

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$5.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$5.4K
6h
−$4.7K
tracked
$21.8K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$10 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Only 0 tracked trades / 50 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • Executable quote is 1562 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 1594 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-10 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Yulia Putintseva and Shuai Zhang in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 3, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Yulia Putintseva' if Yulia Putintseva advances against Shuai Zhang. This market will resolve to 'Shuai Zhang' if Shuai Zhang advances against Yulia Putintseva. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGESELL YES@ 66.0¢2d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$5.4K
6h$4.7K
24h$14.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.6¢
VWAP 24h34.9¢▼ below by 33.3pp
VWAP 7d34.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$926
60¢
$10.1K
55¢
$40
50¢
$5
45¢
$3
40¢
$215
35¢
$135
30¢
$66
25¢
$31
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$50
5¢
$7.9K
0¢
← now
$2.4K

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYShuai Zhang (NO)$10.0K@ 38.1¢0x7d6d…2654🐋2 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x7d6d…2654Shuai Zhang$10.0K
BUY VWAP 38.1¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.