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San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

● quote 1103 min ago
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $436.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $828.9KEvent: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 54%
24h sample:77 trades$139.7K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 17%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1157 min agoofficial metadata 1093 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSan Diego Padres (YES)$103.9K@ 55¢·0x5e94…5ba1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$8.4K
tracked
$139.7K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 54% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 1103 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1157 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1093 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-13 01:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks, scheduled for August 5 at 9:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3dfb…abaf2 linked markets · $22.8K gross
curie2 linked markets · $1.6K gross
0x1a2f…647a3 linked markets · $1.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY San Diego Padres@ 56.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY San Diego Padres@ 56.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY San Diego Padres@ 56.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY San Diego Padres@ 56.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $17 → $39 · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h+$8.4K
24h+$136.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h54.4¢▼ below by 54.3pp
VWAP 7d54.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$240
55¢
$134.5K
50¢
$649
45¢
$9
40¢
$3.1K
35¢
$0
30¢
$10
25¢
$53
20¢
$385
15¢
$3
10¢
$0
5¢
$72
0¢
← now
$690

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYSan Diego Padres (YES)$23.8K@ 55.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—1 day ago
BUYSan Diego Padres (YES)$103.9K@ 55.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5e94…5ba1San Diego Padres$103.9K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·1 fill
SDTradingSan Diego Padres$23.8K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.