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LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group

● quote 583 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 8 hoursLiquidity: $1.7MOfficial 24h Vol: $1.1MEvent: LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly8Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 52%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:252 trades$56.7K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 7%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 618 min agoofficial metadata 484 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYT1 (NO)$21.6K@ 53¢·StasPanda

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$180
6h
−$301
tracked
$56.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$2 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 52% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 583 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 618 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 484 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-06 16:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Dplus KIA and T1 in the LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group, initially scheduled for August 6 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Dplus KIA" if Dplus KIA win the match against T1. This market will resolve to "T1" if T1 win the match against Dplus KIA. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 8h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
esportGG2 linked markets · $35.7K gross
retroactivesource2 linked markets · $12.0K gross
0x10ef…7d7b3 linked markets · $7.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY T112h ago
Outcome checks pending
POSITION CHANGEBUY T1@ 85.0¢13h ago
15m INVALIDATED -6.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY T1@ 53.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +1.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 6.0pp · near-book depth $632 → $94 · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$180
6h−$301
24h−$35.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h40.7¢▼ below by 40.6pp
VWAP 7d40.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$54.4K
40¢
$11.6K
35¢
$0
30¢
$3
25¢
$961
20¢
$3.2K
15¢
$1.3K
10¢
$324
5¢
$135
0¢
← now
$3.7K

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYT1 (NO)$10.8K@ 54.0¢0xdd88…dadb🐋—about 14 hours ago
BUYT1 (NO)$11.5K@ 56.0¢
retroactivesource0x85d5…45ee
🐋—about 19 hours ago
BUYT1 (NO)$21.6K@ 52.5¢
StasPanda0x7e5e…7315
🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

StasPandaT1$21.6K
BUY VWAP 52.5¢·1 fill
retroactivesourceT1$11.5K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill
0xdd88…dadbT1$10.8K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.