Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

● quote 49s ago

Finance→Tech→Closes: 4 daysLiquidity: $105.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $26.3KEvent: Largest Company end of September?

99.8¢

YES

0.3¢

Spread

anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution98Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 63%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:17 trades$14.1K trackedsource coverage 54%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 152 min agoofficial metadata 14 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $2.9K net·4 wallets·$2.9K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYES$6.0K@ 90¢·0x97cf…c6eb

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

−$310

tracked

$14.1K

4 verified profitable wallets: NO · $2.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

0.3¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 63% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
•Observed tape is 152 minutes old.
•Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-10-01 03:59 UTC

Event constraint

Mutually exclusive

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Recent definition/status changes

DEADLINE CHANGED · 5d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 93.0¢30d ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hYES · $0

6hNO · $310

24hYES · $3.0K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current99.8¢

VWAP 24h99.5¢▲ above by 0.3pp

VWAP 7d99.3¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

← now

$56.3K

90¢

$39.5K

85¢

$3.5K

80¢

$4.1K