PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

● quote 1574 min ago
Tech→Closes: 19 daysLiquidity: $75.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $47.2KEvent: Largest Company end of August?
92.5¢
YES
7.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution89Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:20 trades$15.9K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1597 min agoofficial metadata 1581 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$10.4K@ 95¢·0x3814…17bc

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$2
6h
$0
tracked
$15.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$6 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 1574 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1597 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1581 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
climax
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-31 23:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$2
6h+$1
24h+$5.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current92.5¢
VWAP 24h93.9¢▼ below by 1.4pp
VWAP 7d91.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$3.1K
90¢
← now
$26.1K
85¢
$9.9K
80¢
$1.3K
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 90¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYYES$10.4K@ 94.9¢0x3814…17bc🐋—1 day ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
14.5¢$173.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
94.5¢$94.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
16.5¢$63.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?
37.6¢$62.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
0.8¢$52.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Bytedance have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
0.1¢$51.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?
0.7¢$41.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
70.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3814…17bcYes$10.4K
BUY VWAP 94.9¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.