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Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?

● quote 1574 min ago
Tech→Closes: 19 daysLiquidity: $10.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $62.4KEvent: Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?
37.6¢
YES
62.4¢
NO
0.3¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection76Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution72Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 52%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:10 trades$5.0K trackedsource coverage 8%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1612 min agoofficial metadata 1581 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$3.6K@ 44¢·0x2b9d…adc0

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$3.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$3.8K
6h
+$3.8K
tracked
$5.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$1.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.3¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 52% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 1574 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1612 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1581 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-31 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$3.8K
6h+$3.8K
24h+$2.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current37.6¢
VWAP 24h39.0¢▼ below by 1.4pp
VWAP 7d48.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$1.9K
75¢
$18
70¢
$48
65¢
$158
60¢
$2.1K
55¢
$3.8K
50¢
$286
45¢
$8.5K
40¢
$27
35¢
← now
$4.3K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.