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Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

● quote just now
Finance→Tech→CorporateCloses: about 2 monthsLiquidity: $65.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $27.6KEvent: Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

4.5¢
YES
95.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution87Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:9 trades$19.2K trackedsource coverage 70%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 128 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $1.6K net·6 wallets·$4.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$23.8K@ 92¢·The-Joker

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$9.8K
tracked
$19.2K

6 verified profitable wallets: NO · $1.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 128 minutes old.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-05 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH valuations, equal to or below for ↓ LOW valuations) the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH valuations, equal to or below for ↓ LOW valuations) the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Recent definition/status changes
RULES CHANGED · 7d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Dragontree2 linked markets · $22.2K gross
peterfromfamilyguy2 linked markets · $2.3K gross
Elias.Thornwell3 linked markets · $95 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 95.0¢5d ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -3.0pp24h STALLED -3.0pp
MARKET STATE7d ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 30.0¢78d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hNO · $9.8K
24hNO · $18.8K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current4.5¢
VWAP 24h5.96¢▼ below by 1.5pp
VWAP 7d8.18¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$5.7K
20¢
$103.5K
15¢
$73.4K
10¢
$18.3K
5¢
$63.8K
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$23.8K@ 92.0¢
The-Joker0x9aeb…2729
🐋—5 days ago
SELLNO$13.9K@ 80.0¢
Dragontree0x2c39…56dc
🐋—9 days ago
SELLNO$15.8K@ 79.0¢
TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699
🐋—11 days ago
SELLNO$14.2K@ 80.41¢
ronm2380xf66f…8e0c
🐋—14 days ago
SELLYES$15.1K@ 24.0¢
0x4dF63E746b71d3a8e0xbf0f…28ce
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYYES$12.2K@ 30.0¢
LeopoldAschenbooger0x929a…8cf0
🐋—3 months ago
BUYYES$15.6K@ 29.0¢
LeopoldAschenbooger0x929a…8cf0
🐋—3 months ago
BUYYES$12.8K@ 31.0¢
UnreasonableAwareness0x9afd…574b
🐋—3 months ago
BUYYES$14.7K@ 29.0¢
UnreasonableAwareness0x9afd…574b
🐋—3 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

The-JokerNo$23.8K
BUY VWAP 92.0¢·1 fill
DragontreeNo$21.1K
BUY VWAP 91.26¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.