Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

● quote 87 min ago
Geopolitics→Closes: 5 monthsLiquidity: $56.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $593.8KEvent: Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
88.5¢
YES
11.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets65Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution84Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 65%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:117 trades$8.3K trackedsource coverage 1%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 95 min agoofficial metadata 88 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $1.7K·2 wallets·$1.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYES$1.7K@ 89¢·denizz

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$301
6h
−$914
tracked
$8.3K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$1.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 65% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 1%.
  • •Executable quote is 87 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 95 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 88 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
disputed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-12-31 20:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 2.5pp · near-book depth $9.7K → $3.2K · 84s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.disputed

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$301
6h−$914
24h+$571

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current88.5¢
VWAP 24h88.1¢▲ above by 0.4pp
VWAP 7d88.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$980
85¢
← now
$7.2K
80¢
$109
75¢
$0
70¢
$43
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
8.5¢$505.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.1¢$421.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
23.5¢$281.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Iran leadership change by August 31?
3.6¢$234.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
14.0¢$225.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
98.6¢$208.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
3.2¢$105.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
79.0¢$101.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.