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No one announced as next James Bond?

● quote 485 min ago
Culture→FilmCloses: about 2 monthsLiquidity: $80.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $3.6KEvent: Next James Bond actor?

Indicative prices · 485 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

6.6¢
YES
93.4¢
NO
1.2¢
Spread
anomaly4Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection15Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution89Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:5 trades$39 trackedsource coverage 1%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 1953 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $269 net·4 wallets·$269 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNO$7.0K@ 74¢·PCjT1viNMz

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$6
6h
+$6
tracked
$39

4 verified profitable wallets: NO · $269 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.2¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 1%.
  • •Executable quote is 485 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1953 minutes old.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

•If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 49d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 77.4¢80d ago
15m STALLED -2.1pp1h STALLED -1.6pp6h STALLED +1.0pp24h STALLED +1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $6
6hYES · $6
24hYES · $1

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current6.6¢
VWAP 24h6.11¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d12.23¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$871
35¢
$187
30¢
$2.6K
25¢
$11.4K
20¢
$9.1K
15¢
$2.9K
10¢
$5.6K
5¢
← now
$192
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$45.6K@ 75.03¢
ImJustKen0x9d84…1344
🐋—3 months ago
BUYNO$20.3K@ 73.18¢
ImJustKen0x9d84…1344
🐋—3 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.