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Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 7:59 AM ET?

● quote 41s ago
Culture→Closes: about 7 hoursLiquidity: $23.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $166.0KEvent: Kai Cenat finishes GTA marathon by...?

Indicative prices · 41s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

84.5¢
YES
15.5¢
NO
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets21Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution64Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 71%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:90 trades$40.5K trackedsource coverage 24%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 11 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $369 net·5 wallets·$10.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$8.4K@ 74¢·seal7

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$2
6h
−$2.4K
tracked
$40.5K

5 verified profitable wallets: NO · $369 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 71% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 11 minutes old.
  • •Less than 7h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-11 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.twitch.tv/kaicenat
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kai Cenat finishes playing Grand Theft Auto games live on stream, as accepted by him as a successful completion of the marathon, between market creation and the specified date and time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

•If the marathon is cancelled, abandoned before completion, or delayed to a point after the specified date, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

Kai Cenat is scheduled to begin a Grand Theft Auto marathon on November 5, 2026, with the stated goal of playing Grand Theft Auto III, Grand Theft Auto: Vice City, Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas, Grand Theft Auto IV, and Grand Theft Auto V on stream. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kai Cenat finishes playing Grand Theft Auto games live on stream, as accepted by him as a successful completion of the marathon, between market creation and the specified date and time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Playing or completing any individual game, pauses in the livestream, or temporary breaks from gameplay will have no bearing on this market. If Kai Cenat permanently moves on from the Grand Theft Auto marathon to other activities, the marathon will be considered over at that time, even if his livestream continues uninterrupted. Only events occurring while Kai Cenat is broadcasting the marathon live will count. Footage of off-stream or previously recorded attempts will not qualify. If the marathon is cancelled, abandoned before completion, or delayed to a point after the specified date, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be footage from Kai Cenat's official broadcast on YouTube and Twitch.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Parz1vaI3 linked markets · $107.3K gross
MultiQuant24hAgent2 linked markets · $44.9K gross
seal73 linked markets · $24.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $147 → $105 · 102s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $2
6hNO · $2.4K
24hNO · $13.1K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current84.5¢
VWAP 24h46.01¢▲ above by 38.5pp
VWAP 7d44.93¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$2
80¢
← now
$228
75¢
$4.0K
70¢
$7.2K
65¢
$1.8K
60¢
$2.8K
55¢
$2.7K
50¢
$17
45¢
$1.1K
40¢
$1.4K
35¢
$0
30¢
$3.1K
25¢
$17.1K
20¢
$3.6K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

seal7No$13.3K
BUY VWAP 73.80¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.