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Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?

● quote 13s ago
Culture→FilmCloses: about 2 monthsLiquidity: $66.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $18.8KEvent: Highest grossing movie in 2026?

Indicative prices · 13s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

10.25¢
YES
89.75¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution94Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 57%💡 13 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:8 trades$5.1K trackedsource coverage 27%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 233 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $15.7K net·13 wallets·$21.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$33.8K@ 85¢·WordleAddict

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$133
tracked
$5.1K

13 verified profitable wallets: NO · $15.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 57% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 233 minutes old.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-08 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 49d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 90.2¢1d ago
15m STALLED -0.2pp1h STALLED -0.2pp6h STALLED -0.2pp24h STALLED -0.5pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 87.9¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.5pp1h STALLED -1.4pp6h STALLED +2.1pp24h STALLED +1.6pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 92.0¢102d ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp24h STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hNO · $133
24hYES · $4.8K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current10.25¢
VWAP 24h10.22¢▲ above by 0.0pp
VWAP 7d10.94¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$5.0K
10¢
← now
$98.0K
5¢
$79.6K
0¢
$1.4K

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$17.8K@ 88.61¢0x955c…990f🐋—1 day ago
BUYNO$33.8K@ 85.28¢
WordleAddict0xe25b…0f1b
🐋—1 day ago
BUYNO$10.6K@ 90.6¢0xfb59…83f9🐋—4 days ago
BUYNO$11.8K@ 94.53¢
thoodr0x3eae…e2ed
🐋—9 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

WordleAddictNo$38.1K
BUY VWAP 85.61¢·2 fills
0x955c…990fNo$17.8K
BUY VWAP 88.61¢·1 fill
0xfb59…83f9No$10.6K
BUY VWAP 90.6¢·1 fill
laflamablancaNo$10.4K
BUY VWAP 92.98¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.