US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Geopolitics→Closes: 7 monthsLiquidity: $3.6M24h Vol: $12.7M

63.5¢

YES

36.5¢

99.9¢

Spread

conv0Conviction — % of recent trades going one direction (30 min window)whale0Whale Activity — large wallet trades $10k+ in last 24hedge0Edge Score — (Conviction + Whale) / 2, overall signal strengthmom0Momentum — trade frequency vs baseline (30 min window)💡 9 smartSmart wallets (5+ trades, positive PnL) active in last 24h

24h sample:461 trades1% 🐋100% YES0% NO

💡 Smart money 7d:YES 94%·24 wallets(6🐋)·$351.4K

🏆 Biggest bet:YES$45.7K@ 97¢·ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Price History

Orderbook YES/NO

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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.disputed

Net Order Flow

Net Order Flow = YES buy volume minus NO buy volume. Positive (green) = more money betting YES. Negative (red) = more money betting NO. Positive flow at stable/falling price often signals smart accumulation.

1h+$25

6h+$37.6K

24h+$198.7K

VWAP vs Price

VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price — the true average price weighted by how much money traded at each level. Current price above VWAP = overbought vs recent activity. Below = trading at a discount.

Current63.5¢

VWAP 24h99.5¢▼ discount

VWAP 7d89.6¢

Position ConcentrationWallets with ≥15% share of 7-day volume. >40% = single player dominates = manipulation risk or thin liquidity. Multiple large holders may indicate coordinated activity.

Top Holders · 30d

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Volume Profile · 30d (price × volume)

95¢

$850.8K

90¢

$84.0K

85¢

$54.9K

80¢

$184.4K

75¢