PnL by Market (38)4 open34 closed
● open No · $14.3Kin $12.8Kunreal +$1.5K
● open Yes · $18.0Kin $14.0Kunreal +$4.0K
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
● open No · $7.0Kin $6.5Kunreal +$444
● open Yes · $6.5Kin $4.0Kunreal +$2.5K
● closedin $500out $5.9K
● closedin $2.0Kout $2.9K
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
● closedin $1.2Kout $2.0K
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election?
● closedin $1.1Kout $343
● closedin $500
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
● closedin $925out $530
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?
● closedin $537out $831
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?
● closedin $617out $889
● closedin $469out $700
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?
● closedin $228
● closedin $2.1Kout $1.9K
● closedin $800out $582
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 15?
● closedin $580out $378
TikTok sale announced in 2025?
● closedin $2.3Kout $2.5K
● closedin $1.0Kout $1.2K
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
● closedin $860out $700
US government shutdown Saturday?
● closedin $59out $203
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?
● closedin $210out $83
Will Hollow Knight: Silksong win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?
● closedout $108
Lakers vs. Bucks
● closedin $96
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?
● closedout $92
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
● closedin $940out $860
● closedin $100out $20
Will Stable launch a token in 2025?
● closedout $70
● closedin $6.6Kout $6.5K
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?
● closedin $90out $28
Will Kingdom Come: Deliverance II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?
● closedout $48
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
● closedin $1.1Kout $1.1K
Will Hades II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?
● closedout $20
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?
● closedin $393out $410
Will Split Fiction win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?
● closedout $7
● closedin $200out $194
OpenAI browser by October 31?
● closed
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
● closed
| Market | Invested | Received | Unrealized | Trades | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? ●open No· $14.3K | $12.8K | $0 | +$1.5K | 1 | $-11231 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? ●open Yes· $18.0K | $14.0K | $0 | +$4.0K | 32 | $-10041 |
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? ●open No· $7.0K | $6.5K | $0 | +$444 | 1 | $-6098 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? ●open Yes· $6.5K | $4.0K | $0 | +$2.5K | 1 | $-1520 |
| LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs ● closed | $500 | $5.9K | — | 9 | +$5.4K |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A ● closed | $2.0K | $2.9K | — | 4 | +$883 |
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? ● closed | $1.2K | $2.0K | — | 7 | +$842 |
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? ● closed | $1.1K | $343 | — | 13 | $-707 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? ● closed | $500 | $0 | — | 5 | $-500 |
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? ● closed | $925 | $530 | — | 8 | $-395 |
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? ● closed | $537 | $831 | — | 7 | +$294 |
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? ● closed | $617 | $889 | — | 73 | +$272 |
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A ● closed | $469 | $700 | — | 1 | +$231 |
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? ● closed | $228 | $0 | — | 6 | $-228 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? ● closed | $2.1K | $1.9K | — | 17 | $-226 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? ● closed | $800 | $582 | — | 3 | $-218 |
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 15? ● closed | $580 | $378 | — | 28 | $-202 |
TikTok sale announced in 2025? ● closed | $2.3K | $2.5K | — | 7 | +$185 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? ● closed | $1.0K | $1.2K | — | 29 | +$174 |
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? ● closed | $860 | $700 | — | 4 | $-160 |
US government shutdown Saturday? ● closed | $59 | $203 | — | 2 | +$144 |
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? ● closed | $210 | $83 | — | 10 | $-127 |
Will Hollow Knight: Silksong win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? ● closed | $0 | $108 | — | 3 | +$108 |
Lakers vs. Bucks ● closed | $96 | $0 | — | 1 | $-96 |
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? ● closed | $0 | $92 | — | 2 | +$92 |
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? ● closed | $940 | $860 | — | 2 | $-80 |
| LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B ● closed | $100 | $20 | — | 2 | $-80 |
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? ● closed | $0 | $70 | — | 1 | +$70 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? ● closed | $6.6K | $6.5K | — | 22 | $-62 |
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? ● closed | $90 | $28 | — | 17 | $-62 |
Will Kingdom Come: Deliverance II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? ● closed | $0 | $48 | — | 9 | +$48 |
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? ● closed | $1.1K | $1.1K | — | 7 | $-21 |
Will Hades II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? ● closed | $0 | $20 | — | 3 | +$20 |
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? ● closed | $393 | $410 | — | 35 | +$17 |
Will Split Fiction win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? ● closed | $0 | $7 | — | 1 | +$7 |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs ● closed | $200 | $194 | — | 2 | $-6 |
OpenAI browser by October 31? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
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