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Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?

Politics→Settlement: RESOLVEDLiquidity: $444.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.3MEvent: Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner
15.5¢
YES payout
84.5¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$99.8K@ 100¢·DonaldinhoTrumpito

Historical decision record

Market resolved. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-11 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Recent definition/status changes
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 11d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hNO · $12.0K
24hYES · $335.0K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current15.5¢
VWAP 24h89.6¢▼ below by 74.1pp
VWAP 7d87.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$414.9K
90¢
$16.0K
85¢
$19.0K
80¢
$18.9K
75¢
$37.8K
70¢
$7.0K
65¢
$1.0K
60¢
$9.6K
55¢
$17.4K
50¢
$12.5K
45¢
$1.5K
40¢
$580
35¢
$16.0K
30¢
$534
25¢
$35
20¢
$81
15¢
← now
$0
10¢
$16
5¢
$0
0¢
$30.0K

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$22.1K@ 99.9¢
aenews20x44c1…ebc1
🐋—12 days ago
BUYYES$38.4K@ 99.8¢
yougotme0x4d0e…c45b
🐋—12 days ago
SELLYES$40.7K@ 99.5¢
kvento0xf38e…a38a
🐋—12 days ago
BUYYES$39.3K@ 99.8¢0x8931…a90c🐋—12 days ago
BUYYES$19.5K@ 99.9¢0x9507…7b04🐋—12 days ago
BUYYES$99.8K@ 99.8¢
DonaldinhoTrumpito0x7523…4c4c
🐋—12 days ago
BUYYES$36.6K@ 99.6¢
yougotme0x4d0e…c45b
🐋—12 days ago
BUYYES$14.9K@ 99.1¢0x7820…5723🐋—12 days ago
BUYYES$10.4K@ 35.0¢
coali100x7bc1…8db4
🐋—12 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.