PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Politics→ElectionsSettlement: NOLiquidity: $1.1MOfficial 24h Vol: $292.5KEvent: Brazil Presidential Election
0.0¢
YES payout
100.0¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNO$62.6K@ 100¢·zthunderfury

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome NO. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-05 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

Read full resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Recent definition/status changes
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 18d ago
DEADLINE CHANGED · 25d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
eventalpha262 linked markets · $134.1K gross
Lolakis2 linked markets · $110.8K gross
defillama72 linked markets · $81.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 96.3¢63d ago
15m STALLED -0.5pp1h STALLED -0.7pp6h STALLED -0.5pp24h STALLED +0.6pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 95.7¢65d ago
15m STALLED -0.2pp1h STALLED -0.4pp6h STALLED -0.1pp24h STALLED -0.2pp
LARGE FLOWSELL NO@ 95.3¢67d ago
15m STALLED -0.4pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED -1.2pp24h STALLED -0.7pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 94.2¢69d ago
15m STALLED -0.3pp1h STALLED -0.3pp6h STALLED +0.4pp24h STALLED +0.7pp

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $1
6hYES · $15.7K
24hYES · $62.5K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h0.12¢▼ below by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d0.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$466.6K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLNO$62.6K@ 99.9¢
zthunderfury0xc682…17bb
🐋—19 days ago
SELLNO$16.2K@ 99.8¢
scottilicious0x000d…758e
🐋—22 days ago
BUYNO$15.2K@ 99.8¢
thoodr0x3eae…e2ed
🐋—22 days ago
BUYNO$12.9K@ 99.4¢
arjenw0x24de…83cb
🐋—30 days ago
SELLNO$10.3K@ 99.0¢
plumbis0x77fb…266c
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$20.0K@ 98.4¢
k560x33c9…6f9a
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$20.0K@ 98.33¢
k560x33c9…6f9a
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$15.2K@ 98.2¢
scottilicious0x000d…758e
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$24.6K@ 98.5¢
plumbis0x77fb…266c
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$10.0K@ 98.4¢
plumbis0x77fb…266c
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$19.6K@ 97.99¢
plumbis0x77fb…266c
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$10.5K@ 98.89¢
plumbis0x77fb…266c
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$13.6K@ 98.8¢
aloha12310xa456…39f9
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$10.1K@ 98.74¢
HilelTheElder0x7d23…c660
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$24.4K@ 97.8¢
AngryRhino0xdf70…5e92
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$37.8K@ 98.77¢
SAPolitcsSeer0xa30e…49d5
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$10.1K@ 98.0¢
BuddhaYTorrance0x9e87…caa2
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$16.8K@ 98.6¢
1mDream0x837f…86b7
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$17.3K@ 97.86¢
flawfence0x23d8…0288
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$17.5K@ 97.7¢
k560x33c9…6f9a
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$16.5K@ 97.4¢
Qtyu0x7d22…f0cf
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$20.0K@ 97.37¢
aloha12310xa456…39f9
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$10.7K@ 97.5¢
stupid220x8afa…adb6
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$19.4K@ 97.2¢
AngryRhino0xdf70…5e92
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$24.2K@ 97.2¢
DonaldinhoTrumpito0x7523…4c4c
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$11.8K@ 97.1¢
plumbis0x77fb…266c
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$17.0K@ 96.6¢
plumbis0x77fb…266c
🐋—2 months ago
SELLNO$11.9K@ 96.35¢
789798798798790xeb49…693e
🐋—2 months ago
BUYNO$14.6K@ 97.0¢
zthunderfury0xc682…17bb
🐋—2 months ago
BUYNO$10.2K@ 96.81¢
zthunderfury0xc682…17bb
🐋—2 months ago
BUYNO$39.0K@ 95.99¢
scottilicious0x000d…758e
🐋—2 months ago
BUYNO$42.0K@ 96.47¢
scottilicious0x000d…758e
🐋—2 months ago
SELLNO$19.6K@ 95.26¢
RendaFixa0x46df…dc32
🐋—2 months ago
BUYNO$23.9K@ 95.7¢
ThanksGivingTurkey10010xbace…3429
🐋—2 months ago
SELLNO$12.2K@ 94.78¢
unknwnfnd0xbc75…3f69
🐋—2 months ago
SELLNO$10.4K@ 94.37¢
unknwnfnd0xbc75…3f69
🐋—2 months ago
BUYNO$17.7K@ 93.99¢
StudentMoney0xfb51…742d
🐋—2 months ago
SELLNO$16.0K@ 92.6¢0x70a7…b884🐋—2 months ago
BUYNO$19.0K@ 92.79¢
789798798798790xeb49…693e
🐋—2 months ago
BUYNO$13.4K@ 92.5¢
789798798798790xeb49…693e
🐋—2 months ago
SELLNO$17.5K@ 91.76¢0x3fd7…3e9e🐋—2 months ago
BUYNO$16.7K@ 92.59¢
Eatpraylove0xc021…1fa8
🐋—2 months ago
SELLNO$10.5K@ 92.45¢
unknwnfnd0xbc75…3f69
🐋—2 months ago
SELLNO$27.9K@ 93.0¢
unknwnfnd0xbc75…3f69
🐋—3 months ago
SELLNO$24.1K@ 92.53¢
unknwnfnd0xbc75…3f69
🐋—3 months ago
SELLNO$16.6K@ 92.4¢
unknwnfnd0xbc75…3f69
🐋—3 months ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
0.8¢$2.9Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
7.5¢$1.2Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.05¢$886.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
67.5¢$659.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
66.5¢$633.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
91.5¢$426.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Marion Maréchal win the 2027 French presidential election?
0.05¢$371.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?
0.1¢$358.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.