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Set 2 Winner: Alex Michelsen vs Alejandro Tabilo

● quote 30 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $7.3KEvent: BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Alex Michelsen vs Alejandro Tabilo

Indicative prices · 30 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

6.5¢
Alex Michelsen
93.5¢
Alejandro Tabilo
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection99Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution49Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%
24h sample:8 trades$5.9K trackedsource coverage 81%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 16 min agoofficial metadata 8 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLAlejandro Tabilo$4.2K@ 100¢·Ezmoneyfornow

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Alex Michelsen pressure: $5.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$5.8K
6h
+$5.8K
tracked
$5.9K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 85% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 30 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 16 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Alex Michelsen or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-19 12:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Alex Michelsen” if Alex Michelsen wins set 2. It will resolve to “Alejandro Tabilo” if Alejandro Tabilo wins set 2.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Michelsen and Alejandro Tabilo in the BNP Paribas Nordic Open, originally scheduled for November 12, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Alex Michelsen” if Alex Michelsen wins set 2. It will resolve to “Alejandro Tabilo” if Alejandro Tabilo wins set 2. If the match begins but set 2 is not completed with a winner determined (including the match ending before set 2 is reached), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by November 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ch27er2 linked markets · $20.3K gross
miracle11253dsfd2 linked markets · $4.0K gross
0xde96…190c2 linked markets · $28 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alex Michelsen; negative values favor Alejandro Tabilo. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlex Michelsen · $5.8K
6hAlex Michelsen · $5.8K
24hAlex Michelsen · $5.8K

Alex Michelsen price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alex Michelsen price. Alejandro Tabilo fills are converted to the complementary Alex Michelsen probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current6.5¢
VWAP 24h3.74¢▲ above by 2.8pp
VWAP 7d3.74¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alex Michelsen price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$351
50¢
$16
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$34
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
← now
$0
0¢
$5.5K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.