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BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Alex Michelsen vs Alejandro Tabilo

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $824.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $782.1KEvent: BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Alex Michelsen vs Alejandro Tabilo

Polymarket indicative prices · 13 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.5¢
Alex Michelsen
99.5¢
Alejandro Tabilo
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection24Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets23Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 18 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:213 trades$366.7K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alex Michelsen · $27.2K net·18 wallets(1🐋)·$116.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLAlejandro Tabilo$52.1K@ 100¢·Woaifacai

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Alex Michelsen pressure: $88.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$88.7K
6h
+$126.8K
tracked
$366.7K

18 verified profitable wallets: Alex Michelsen · $27.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Alex Michelsen or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-19 12:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Michelsen and Alejandro Tabilo in the BNP Paribas Nordic Open, originally scheduled for November 12, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex Michelsen' if Alex Michelsen advances against Alejandro Tabilo. This market will resolve to 'Alejandro Tabilo' if Alejandro Tabilo advances against Alex Michelsen. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ch27er2 linked markets · $20.3K gross
miracle11253dsfd2 linked markets · $4.0K gross
0xde96…190c2 linked markets · $28 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Alejandro Tabilo@ 99.0¢18m ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Alex Michelsen DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $449 → $5.5K · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alex Michelsen; negative values favor Alejandro Tabilo. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlex Michelsen · $88.7K
6hAlex Michelsen · $126.8K
24hAlex Michelsen · $133.8K

Alex Michelsen price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alex Michelsen price. Alejandro Tabilo fills are converted to the complementary Alex Michelsen probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.5¢
VWAP 24h35.99¢▼ below by 35.5pp
VWAP 7d35.99¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alex Michelsen price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$11.8K
80¢
$970
75¢
$21.6K
70¢
$10.6K
65¢
$34.9K
60¢
$4
55¢
$1.6K
50¢
$12.6K
45¢
$85.5K
40¢
$52.3K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$1.1K
20¢
$0
15¢
$11.1K
10¢
$0
5¢
$6.1K
0¢
← now
$116.5K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAlejandro Tabilo$52.1K@ 99.9¢
Woaifacai0x9b89…4244
🐋—3 minutes ago
SELLAlejandro Tabilo$28.0K@ 99.9¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—14 minutes ago
SELLAlejandro Tabilo$10.2K@ 99.9¢
ch27er0x61a3…e508
🐋—15 minutes ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$15.9K@ 44.0¢
Danielbkck0xab82…abe5
🐋—32 minutes ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$14.8K@ 43.66¢
Danielbkck0xab82…abe5
🐋—33 minutes ago
BUYAlejandro Tabilo$15.8K@ 54.83¢
Woaifacai0x9b89…4244
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$10.4K@ 48.0¢
PonzioPeraltro0x736a…f2cf
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$11.6K@ 47.37¢
xabidaking0x3f98…0aa1
🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Michelsen vs. Tabilo: Match O/U 22.5
—$4.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Alex Michelsen (-3.5) vs Alejandro Tabilo (+3.5)
—$1.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Michelsen vs. Tabilo: Match O/U 21.5
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Set 2 Winner: Alex Michelsen vs Alejandro Tabilo
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Alex Michelsen vs. Alejandro Tabilo: Total Sets O/U 2.5
—$65priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Michelsen vs. Tabilo: Match O/U 23.5
—$49priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
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36.5¢$1.0Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

DanielbkckAlex Michelsen$34.7K
BUY VWAP 43.85¢·3 fills
WoaifacaiAlejandro Tabilo$25.8K
BUY VWAP 54.11¢·2 fills
xabidakingAlex Michelsen$11.6K
BUY VWAP 47.37¢·1 fill
redvinnyAlejandro Tabilo$11.6K
BUY VWAP 87.08¢·3 fills
LightParadoxAlex Michelsen$11.3K
BUY VWAP 73.84¢·7 fills
PonzioPeraltroAlex Michelsen$10.4K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.