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Hersonissos 3: Francesco Maestrelli vs Sumit Nagal

● quote 8 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $161.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $440.0KEvent: Hersonissos 3: Francesco Maestrelli vs Sumit Nagal

Polymarket indicative prices · 14 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.95¢
Francesco Maestrelli
0.05¢
Sumit Nagal
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets12Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:115 trades$157.0K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 24 min agoofficial metadata 8 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Francesco Maestrelli · $6.6K net·11 wallets(2🐋)·$53.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFrancesco Maestrelli$23.6K@ 81¢·Woaifacai

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Sumit Nagal pressure: $2.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.6K
6h
+$6.9K
tracked
$157.0K

11 verified profitable wallets: Francesco Maestrelli · $6.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +55.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 8 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 24 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 55.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Sumit Nagal or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-20 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Francesco Maestrelli and Sumit Nagal in the Hersonissos 3, originally scheduled for November 13, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Francesco Maestrelli' if Francesco Maestrelli advances against Sumit Nagal. This market will resolve to 'Sumit Nagal' if Sumit Nagal advances against Francesco Maestrelli. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Sumit Nagal@ 45.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -42.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Francesco Maestrelli1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Francesco Maestrelli@ 58.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +13.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Sumit Nagal DOWN 3.8pp · near-book depth $5.3K → $23 · 35s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Francesco Maestrelli; negative values favor Sumit Nagal. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSumit Nagal · $2.6K
6hFrancesco Maestrelli · $6.9K
24hFrancesco Maestrelli · $6.9K

Francesco Maestrelli price VWAP

Volume-weighted Francesco Maestrelli price. Sumit Nagal fills are converted to the complementary Francesco Maestrelli probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.95¢
VWAP 24h78.41¢▲ above by 21.5pp
VWAP 7d78.41¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Francesco Maestrelli price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$10.1K
90¢
$11.6K
85¢
$18.0K
80¢
$50.0K
75¢
$15.7K
70¢
$8.8K
65¢
$35.5K
60¢
$3.8K
55¢
$2.4K
50¢
$123
45¢
$1.0K
40¢
$63
35¢
$22
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSumit Nagal$18.0K@ 34.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFrancesco Maestrelli$23.6K@ 80.78¢
Woaifacai0x9b89…4244
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

redvinnyFrancesco Maestrelli$29.5K
BUY VWAP 80.17¢·10 fills
WoaifacaiFrancesco Maestrelli$27.3K
BUY VWAP 81.19¢·3 fills
0x2c33…0563Sumit Nagal$18.0K
BUY VWAP 34.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.