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Matsuyama: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Jay Dylan Friend

● quote 477 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $208.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $186.3KEvent: Matsuyama: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Jay Dylan Friend

Indicative prices · 477 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
Yu-Hsiou Hsu
0.1¢
Jay Dylan Friend
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets82Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 54%💡 10 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:129 trades$29.7K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 16%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 485 min agoofficial metadata 479 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Yu-Hsiou Hsu · $2.6K net·10 wallets·$3.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJay Dylan Friend$10.3K@ 25¢·0x6982…a165

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$29.7K

10 verified profitable wallets: Yu-Hsiou Hsu · $2.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 54% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 477 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 485 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 479 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-20 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Yu-Hsiou Hsu and Jay Dylan Friend in the Matsuyama, originally scheduled for November 12, 2026 at 7:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Yu-Hsiou Hsu' if Yu-Hsiou Hsu advances against Jay Dylan Friend. This market will resolve to 'Jay Dylan Friend' if Jay Dylan Friend advances against Yu-Hsiou Hsu. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Jay Dylan Friend DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $9.0K → $23 · 4s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Yu-Hsiou Hsu; negative values favor Jay Dylan Friend. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYu-Hsiou Hsu · $0
6hYu-Hsiou Hsu · $0
24hJay Dylan Friend · $10.1K

Yu-Hsiou Hsu price VWAP

Volume-weighted Yu-Hsiou Hsu price. Jay Dylan Friend fills are converted to the complementary Yu-Hsiou Hsu probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h59.62¢▲ above by 40.3pp
VWAP 7d59.62¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Yu-Hsiou Hsu price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$96
90¢
$0
85¢
$3.3K
80¢
$0
75¢
$351
70¢
$12.5K
65¢
$246
60¢
$1.9K
55¢
$136
50¢
$156
45¢
$299
40¢
$3.7K
35¢
$1.4K
30¢
$96
25¢
$4.4K
20¢
$35
15¢
$541
10¢
$542
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYJay Dylan Friend$10.3K@ 25.37¢0x6982…a165🐋—about 11 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x6982…a165Jay Dylan Friend$12.1K
BUY VWAP 25.46¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.