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M25 Santa Cruz do Sul: Augusto Land vs Gabriel Augusto Carvalho

● quote 11 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $22.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $116.0KEvent: M25 Santa Cruz do Sul: Augusto Land vs Gabriel Augusto Carvalho

Polymarket indicative prices · 11 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.95¢
Augusto Land
0.05¢
Gabriel Augusto Carvalho
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets34Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution14Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:24 trades$5.6K trackedsource coverage 5%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 147 min agoofficial metadata 8 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Augusto Land · $1.7K net·4 wallets·$4.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAugusto Land$1.7K@ 81¢·dips.

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$2.1K
tracked
$5.6K

4 verified profitable wallets: Augusto Land · $1.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 11 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 147 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-17 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Augusto Land and Gabriel Augusto Carvalho in the M25 Santa Cruz do Sul, Main Draw, originally scheduled for November 10, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Augusto Land' if Augusto Land advances against Gabriel Augusto Carvalho. This market will resolve to 'Gabriel Augusto Carvalho' if Gabriel Augusto Carvalho advances against Augusto Land. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Augusto Land UP 11.5pp · near-book depth $40.2K → $55.7K · 33s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Augusto Land; negative values favor Gabriel Augusto Carvalho. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAugusto Land · $0
6hAugusto Land · $2.1K
24hAugusto Land · $2.1K

Augusto Land price VWAP

Volume-weighted Augusto Land price. Gabriel Augusto Carvalho fills are converted to the complementary Augusto Land probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.95¢
VWAP 24h82.65¢▲ above by 17.3pp
VWAP 7d82.65¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Augusto Land price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$1.6K
85¢
$1.6K
80¢
$1.7K
75¢
$0
70¢
$230
65¢
$0
60¢
$350
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$127
25¢
$23
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.