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WTA Finals, Group A: Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $252.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $553.6KEvent: WTA Finals, Group A: Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.05¢
Marta Kostyuk
99.95¢
Jessica Pegula
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection21Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:163 trades$224.5K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Jessica Pegula · $40.2K net·8 wallets(1🐋)·$58.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJessica Pegula$14.7K@ 66¢·kkookkoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Jessica Pegula pressure: $45.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$45.5K
6h
−$65.8K
tracked
$224.5K

8 verified profitable wallets: Jessica Pegula · $40.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Jessica Pegula or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-17 18:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Marta Kostyuk and Jessica Pegula in the WTA Finals, Group A, originally scheduled for November 10, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marta Kostyuk' if Marta Kostyuk advances against Jessica Pegula. This market will resolve to 'Jessica Pegula' if Jessica Pegula advances against Marta Kostyuk. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ChungChung12 linked markets · $2.6K gross
0xdbdd…a5de3 linked markets · $1.8K gross
seeyouanymore2 linked markets · $77 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Jessica Pegula UP 3.1pp · near-book depth $6.0K → $70 · 6s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Marta Kostyuk; negative values favor Jessica Pegula. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJessica Pegula · $45.5K
6hJessica Pegula · $65.8K
24hJessica Pegula · $67.6K

Marta Kostyuk price VWAP

Volume-weighted Marta Kostyuk price. Jessica Pegula fills are converted to the complementary Marta Kostyuk probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.05¢
VWAP 24h24.32¢▼ below by 24.3pp
VWAP 7d24.32¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Marta Kostyuk price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$40.9K
30¢
$25.3K
25¢
$24.3K
20¢
$77.4K
15¢
$31.8K
10¢
$6.1K
5¢
$15.3K
0¢
← now
$3.3K

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYJessica Pegula$12.8K@ 79.0¢
RN10x2005…75ea
🐋—8 minutes ago
BUYJessica Pegula$12.7K@ 81.01¢
RN10x2005…75ea
🐋—8 minutes ago
BUYJessica Pegula$10.8K@ 92.0¢
C63AMG0xb31e…c120
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYJessica Pegula$14.7K@ 65.8¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set 2 Winner: Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula
52.0¢$14.2Kpriority49Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kostyuk vs. Pegula: Match O/U 22.5
50.5¢$9.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Jessica Pegula (-1.5) vs Marta Kostyuk (+1.5)
50.0¢$7.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kostyuk vs. Pegula: Match O/U 21.5
55.5¢$3.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Jessica Pegula (-1.5) vs Marta Kostyuk (+1.5)
50.0¢$2.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kostyuk vs. Pegula: Match O/U 23.5
50.5¢$95priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Marta Kostyuk vs. Jessica Pegula: Total Sets O/U 2.5
50.0¢$12priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Lima: Marco Cecchinato vs Francisco Comesana
16.5¢$577.8Kpriority81Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

RN1Jessica Pegula$25.6K
BUY VWAP 79.99¢·2 fills
kkookkooJessica Pegula$14.7K
BUY VWAP 65.8¢·1 fill
999585Jessica Pegula$13.9K
BUY VWAP 80.94¢·2 fills
C63AMGJessica Pegula$10.8K
BUY VWAP 92.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.