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Set 2 Winner: Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula

● quote 13s ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $15.8KEvent: WTA Finals, Group A: Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula

Indicative prices · 13s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.05¢
Marta Kostyuk
99.95¢
Jessica Pegula
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection93Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution69Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%
24h sample:8 trades$2.3K trackedsource coverage 14%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMarta Kostyuk$1.8K@ 40¢·0xdbdd…a5de

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Marta Kostyuk pressure: $2.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.1K
6h
+$2.0K
tracked
$2.3K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Marta Kostyuk or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-17 18:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Marta Kostyuk” if Marta Kostyuk wins set 2. It will resolve to “Jessica Pegula” if Jessica Pegula wins set 2.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Marta Kostyuk and Jessica Pegula in the WTA Finals, Group A, originally scheduled for November 10, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to “Marta Kostyuk” if Marta Kostyuk wins set 2. It will resolve to “Jessica Pegula” if Jessica Pegula wins set 2. If the match begins but set 2 is not completed with a winner determined (including the match ending before set 2 is reached), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by November 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA match statistics. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ChungChung12 linked markets · $2.6K gross
0xdbdd…a5de3 linked markets · $1.8K gross
seeyouanymore2 linked markets · $77 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Marta Kostyuk DOWN 9.0pp · near-book depth $323 → $39 · 54s
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Marta Kostyuk; negative values favor Jessica Pegula. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMarta Kostyuk · $2.1K
6hMarta Kostyuk · $2.0K
24hMarta Kostyuk · $2.0K

Marta Kostyuk price VWAP

Volume-weighted Marta Kostyuk price. Jessica Pegula fills are converted to the complementary Marta Kostyuk probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.05¢
VWAP 24h41.22¢▼ below by 41.2pp
VWAP 7d41.22¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

WTA Finals, Group A: Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula
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Kostyuk vs. Pegula: Match O/U 23.5
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.