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Spread: Magic (-5.5)

● quote just now
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $22.7KEvent: Magic vs. Kings

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

51.5¢
Magic
48.5¢
Kings
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly4Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 55%
24h sample:11 trades$4.9K trackedsource coverage 22%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 33 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKings$1.7K@ 48¢·LightParadox

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$6
6h
+$1.4K
tracked
$4.9K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 55% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 33 minutes old.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-11 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Magic" if the Magic win the game by 6 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Kings". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Kings".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game between Magic and Kings, originally scheduled for Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "Magic" if the Magic win the game by 6 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Kings". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Kings". If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Thursday, November 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ropetard2 linked markets · $70.4K gross
mooseborzoi6 linked markets · $29.2K gross
HomeRunHazard4 linked markets · $10.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Magic; negative values favor Kings. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMagic · $6
6hMagic · $1.4K
24hMagic · $1.5K

Magic price VWAP

Volume-weighted Magic price. Kings fills are converted to the complementary Magic probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current51.5¢
VWAP 24h53.29¢▼ below by 1.8pp
VWAP 7d53.29¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Magic price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$10
50¢
← now
$4.9K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Magic (-6.5)
48.5¢$184.5Kpriority56Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Magic vs. Kings
66.5¢$120.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Magic vs. Kings: O/U 221.5
51.5¢$27.1Kpriority69Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Magic vs. Kings: O/U 223.5
45.5¢$23.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Magic (-7.5)
44.5¢$16.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Magic vs. Kings: O/U 222.5
48.5¢$9.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Magic vs. Kings: O/U 219.5
—$132priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Kings (-21.5)
—$39priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.