Spread: Magic (-6.5)

● quote just now

Sports→BasketballCloses: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $141.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $184.5KEvent: Magic vs. Kings

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

48.5¢

Magic

51.5¢

Kings

1.0¢

Spread

anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection20Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets34Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:26 trades$92.1K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 24 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Kings · $26.0K net·3 wallets(1🐋)·$75.7K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKings$39.3K@ 51¢·ropetard

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

Magic pressure: $18.7K net directional flow in 1h.

+$18.7K

−$36.8K

tracked

$92.1K

3 verified profitable wallets: Kings · $26.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Observed tape is 24 minutes old.
•Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Magic or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-11-11 03:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/

Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Magic" if the Magic win the game by 7 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Kings". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Kings".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game between Magic and Kings, originally scheduled for Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "Magic" if the Magic win the game by 7 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Kings". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Kings". If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Thursday, November 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

ropetard2 linked markets · $70.4K gross

mooseborzoi6 linked markets · $29.2K gross

HomeRunHazard4 linked markets · $10.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL Kings@ 51.0¢40m ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp

LARGE FLOWBUY Kings@ 53.0¢55m ago

15m STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Magic; negative values favor Kings. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hMagic · $18.7K

6hKings · $36.8K

24hKings · $32.2K

Magic price VWAP

Volume-weighted Magic price. Kings fills are converted to the complementary Magic probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current48.5¢

VWAP 24h48.6¢▼ below by 0.1pp

VWAP 7d48.6¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Magic price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

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55¢