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Set Handicap: Hugo Gaston (-1.5) vs Matteo Martineau (+1.5)

Sports→TennisCloses: 5 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $28Event: Orleans: Matteo Martineau vs Hugo Gaston

Polymarket indicative prices · 7 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

50.0¢
Hugo Gaston
50.0¢
Matteo Martineau.
—
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 52%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:1 trades$2 trackedsource coverage 7%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 81 min agoofficial metadata 7 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$2
tracked
$2

1 verified profitable wallet: Hugo Gaston · $2 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 52% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 81 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-16 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Hugo Gaston" if Hugo Gaston wins by 2 or more sets than Matteo Martineau, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Matteo Martineau."

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Hugo Gaston can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Matteo Martineau."

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Hugo Gaston and Matteo Martineau in the Orleans, originally scheduled for November 9, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Hugo Gaston" if Hugo Gaston wins by 2 or more sets than Matteo Martineau, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Matteo Martineau." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Hugo Gaston can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Matteo Martineau." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by November 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
DCAAA2 linked markets · $5 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Hugo Gaston; negative values favor Matteo Martineau.. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHugo Gaston · $0
6hHugo Gaston · $2
24hHugo Gaston · $2

Hugo Gaston price VWAP

Volume-weighted Hugo Gaston price. Matteo Martineau. fills are converted to the complementary Hugo Gaston probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.0¢
VWAP 24h39.0¢▲ above by 11.0pp
VWAP 7d39.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Hugo Gaston price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$2
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Matteo Martineau vs. Hugo Gaston: Total Sets O/U 2.5
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Set 2 Winner: Matteo Martineau vs Hugo Gaston
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.