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Orleans: Matteo Martineau vs Hugo Gaston

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 5 daysLiquidity: $178.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $87.3KEvent: Orleans: Matteo Martineau vs Hugo Gaston

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

11.5¢
Matteo Martineau
88.5¢
Hugo Gaston
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection76Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:51 trades$36.0K trackedsource coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 11 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Hugo Gaston · $4.5K net·3 wallets·$4.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHugo Gaston$8.8K@ 92¢·sdfdsfasdasdaD

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Hugo Gaston pressure: $27.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$27.3K
6h
−$25.0K
tracked
$36.0K

3 verified profitable wallets: Hugo Gaston · $4.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 11 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Hugo Gaston or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-16 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Matteo Martineau and Hugo Gaston in the Orleans, originally scheduled for November 9, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Martineau' if Matteo Martineau advances against Hugo Gaston. This market will resolve to 'Hugo Gaston' if Hugo Gaston advances against Matteo Martineau. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
DCAAA2 linked markets · $5 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Matteo Martineau DOWN 7.0pp · near-book depth $8.6K → $15.3K · 32s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Matteo Martineau; negative values favor Hugo Gaston. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHugo Gaston · $27.3K
6hHugo Gaston · $25.0K
24hHugo Gaston · $25.1K

Matteo Martineau price VWAP

Volume-weighted Matteo Martineau price. Hugo Gaston fills are converted to the complementary Matteo Martineau probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current11.5¢
VWAP 24h21.54¢▼ below by 10.0pp
VWAP 7d21.56¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Matteo Martineau price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$1.2K
40¢
$8.5K
35¢
$1.2K
30¢
$267
25¢
$0
20¢
$169
15¢
$7.9K
10¢
← now
$8.0K
5¢
$8.8K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Martineau vs. Gaston: Match O/U 22.5
50.0¢$100priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Hugo Gaston (-1.5) vs Matteo Martineau (+1.5)
50.0¢$28priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Matteo Martineau vs Hugo Gaston
0.05¢$10priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Matteo Martineau (-1.5) vs Hugo Gaston (+1.5)
0.45¢$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Martineau vs. Gaston: Match O/U 21.5
50.0¢$2priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Hugo Gaston (-1.5) vs Matteo Martineau (+1.5)
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Martineau vs. Gaston: Match O/U 23.5
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Matteo Martineau vs. Hugo Gaston: Total Sets O/U 2.5
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.