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Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

● quote 29 min ago
Politics→Geopolitics→ElectionsCloses: 14 daysLiquidity: $121.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $5.9KEvent: Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Indicative prices · 29 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

3.05¢
YES
96.95¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 17 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:37 trades$4.0K trackedsource coverage 67%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 169 min agoofficial metadata 5 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $9.0K net·17 wallets·$9.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$29.5K@ 95¢·0x3d68…a444

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$429
tracked
$4.0K

17 verified profitable wallets: NO · $9.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 29 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 169 minutes old.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-28 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

Read full resolution rules

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 42d ago
DEADLINE CHANGED · 49d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x122c…fbed4 linked markets · $135.5K gross
0x9b28…6ccc5 linked markets · $56.2K gross
0x3db9…81b12 linked markets · $46.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 91.0¢15d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED +1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 88.0¢23d ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 87.0¢26d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +2.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hNO · $429
24hNO · $105

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current3.05¢
VWAP 24h3.11¢▼ below by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d2.86¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$92.6K
10¢
$122.7K
5¢
$323.7K
0¢
← now
$102.3K

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLNO$10.1K@ 93.9¢0x696a…e23a🐋—10 days ago
SELLNO$23.4K@ 93.58¢
itamarBenGvir0x3403…9906
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$22.9K@ 94.68¢
kiuuuu0xa780…3b25
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$29.5K@ 94.69¢0x3d68…a444🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$14.1K@ 94.0¢
Bigggggggg0x511f…cbe1
🐋—14 days ago
BUYNO$15.0K@ 89.92¢
robau0x212f…7fd2
🐋—15 days ago
BUYNO$21.9K@ 87.49¢
itamarBenGvir0x3403…9906
🐋—23 days ago
BUYNO$27.4K@ 84.92¢
bifurcatio0xa9ea…1043
🐋—26 days ago
BUYNO$12.0K@ 87.73¢
Bigggggggg0x511f…cbe1
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$11.3K@ 87.0¢
inrock300xd576…d5e3
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$11.5K@ 87.81¢
pakukudolphi0x88e2…7489
🐋—about 2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.