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Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?

● quote just now
Politics→ElectionsCloses: about 2 monthsLiquidity: $70.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $118.5KEvent: Pete Hegseth impeached by...?

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

60.85¢
YES
39.15¢
NO
1.7¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution83Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 56%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:84 trades$28.2K trackedsource coverage 24%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 31 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $1.2K net·7 wallets·$1.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$9.4K@ 66¢·bernardbulletin

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$13
6h
−$1.4K
tracked
$28.2K

7 verified profitable wallets: YES · $1.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.7¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 56% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 31 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

•If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office prior to the satisfaction of the criteria for a "Yes" resolution, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office prior to the satisfaction of the criteria for a "Yes" resolution, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 4.2pp · near-book depth $6.2K → $843 · 98s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $13
6hNO · $1.4K
24hYES · $11.6K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current60.85¢
VWAP 24h75.21¢▼ below by 14.4pp
VWAP 7d62.29¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$1.6K
75¢
$23.1K
70¢
$12.2K
65¢
$21.2K
60¢
← now
$3.9K
55¢
$631
50¢
$164
45¢
$4.4K
40¢
$1.3K
35¢
$1.2K
30¢
$0
25¢
$2.4K
20¢
$8.7K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$1.0K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

bernardbulletinYes$26.8K
BUY VWAP 64.57¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.