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Games Total: O/U 4.5

● quote 814 min ago
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $4.0KEvent: Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ (BO5) - IEM Beijing Playoffs

Indicative prices · 814 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

26.5¢
Over
73.5¢
Under
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection22Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution49Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 52%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:9 trades$305 trackedsource coverage 8%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 29 min agoofficial metadata 13 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Under · $143 net·3 wallets·$143 gross

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$67
6h
−$168
tracked
$305

3 verified profitable wallets: Under · $143 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 52% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 814 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 29 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-08 13:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if TheMongolz and MOUZ play 5 or more maps in this series.

•If fewer than 5 maps are played, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Grand Final match between TheMongolz and MOUZ in the IEM Beijing Playoffs, initially scheduled for November 8, 2026 at 2:30 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if TheMongolz and MOUZ play 5 or more maps in this series. If fewer than 5 maps are played, this market will resolve to "Under". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the total, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 22, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of November 8, 2026 at 2:30 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The match is considered to have begun once live play begins in its first map or game. Warmup rounds and knife rounds do not count as the start of the match. A round forced live because a team did not ready up or resume play within the allotted time does not count as the start of the match if that team forfeits before the next round begins. If the match begins and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, the match will count as completed. In that case, any remaining maps required to decide the match, including a map in progress or not yet started, will be counted as won by the winning team. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xc9bf…81c03 linked markets · $55.5K gross
randomrandomrandom2 linked markets · $48.1K gross
0xf732…bd9f3 linked markets · $33.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hUnder · $67
6hUnder · $168
24hUnder · $168

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current26.5¢
VWAP 24h17.39¢▲ above by 9.1pp
VWAP 7d17.39¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
← now
$126
20¢
$0
15¢
$112
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$67

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ (BO5) - IEM Beijing Playoffs
0.55¢$1.2Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ - Map 3 Winner
3.65¢$443.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5)
96.5¢$351.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-2.5) vs TheMongolz (+2.5)
94.45¢$83.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 3.5
2.5¢$18.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ - Map 4 Winner
49.5¢$8.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)
47.25¢$2.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
18.0¢$2.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.