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Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ (BO5) - IEM Beijing Playoffs

● quote 11s ago
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $87.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.1MEvent: Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ (BO5) - IEM Beijing Playoffs

Indicative prices · 11s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.05¢
TheMongolz
99.95¢
MOUZ
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets99Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution97Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 83%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:286 trades$354.8K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:MOUZ · $40.6K net·11 wallets·$40.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMOUZ$38.6K@ 80¢·Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

MOUZ pressure: $42.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$42.4K
6h
−$120.0K
tracked
$354.8K

11 verified profitable wallets: MOUZ · $40.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 83% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +19.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 19.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from MOUZ or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-08 13:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz win the match against MOUZ.

•This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against TheMongolz.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Grand Final match between TheMongolz and MOUZ in the IEM Beijing Playoffs, initially scheduled for November 8, 2026 at 2:30 AM ET. This market will resolve to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz win the match against MOUZ. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against TheMongolz. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 22, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of November 8, 2026 at 2:30 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xc9bf…81c03 linked markets · $55.5K gross
randomrandomrandom2 linked markets · $48.1K gross
CORGI83 linked markets · $32.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY MOUZ@ 81.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +7.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY MOUZ@ 81.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h CONFIRMED +9.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY MOUZ@ 81.0¢12h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY MOUZ@ 81.0¢14h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp
Latest book event: MOUZ UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $23.1K → $11.3K · 52s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor TheMongolz; negative values favor MOUZ. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMOUZ · $42.4K
6hMOUZ · $120.0K
24hMOUZ · $225.8K

TheMongolz price VWAP

Volume-weighted TheMongolz price. MOUZ fills are converted to the complementary TheMongolz probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.05¢
VWAP 24h16.59¢▼ below by 16.5pp
VWAP 7d16.59¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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TheMongolz price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$237.5K
15¢
$41.8K
10¢
$11.6K
5¢
$9.7K
0¢
← now
$54.3K

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMOUZ$15.0K@ 99.82¢
miirone0x9483…0832
🐋—20 minutes ago
BUYMOUZ$38.6K@ 80.0¢
Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl0x549b…c0ae
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYMOUZ$26.0K@ 80.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYMOUZ$38.5K@ 80.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 8 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ - Map 3 Winner
3.65¢$381.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5)
96.5¢$350.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-2.5) vs TheMongolz (+2.5)
94.45¢$82.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 3.5
2.5¢$18.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ - Map 4 Winner
49.5¢$8.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 4.5
4.5¢$4.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)
47.25¢$2.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
18.0¢$2.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Lakersfan111MOUZ$70.2K
BUY VWAP 79.92¢·4 fills
Thunderous-Authoritarian-SnarlMOUZ$38.6K
BUY VWAP 80.0¢·1 fill
0xc9bf…81c0MOUZ$32.5K
BUY VWAP 79.45¢·9 fills
MeiGuNiuBiTheMongolz$20.8K
BUY VWAP 20.48¢·5 fills
miironeMOUZ$15.0K
BUY VWAP 99.82¢·1 fill
Zzzz87MOUZ$11.1K
BUY VWAP 80.87¢·2 fills
FeedTheBigBirdMOUZ$10.9K
BUY VWAP 80.58¢·2 fills
backbackMOUZ$10.7K
BUY VWAP 99.49¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.