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Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz

● quote 13s ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $768.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $774.1KEvent: Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz

Indicative prices · 13s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.05¢
Alex Molcan
99.95¢
Taylor Fritz
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets88Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 13 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:240 trades$322.0K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Taylor Fritz · $108.7K net·13 wallets(1🐋)·$123.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTaylor Fritz$44.7K@ 80¢·999585

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Alex Molcan pressure: $22.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$22.0K
6h
−$87.7K
tracked
$322.0K

13 verified profitable wallets: Taylor Fritz · $108.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: +20.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 20.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Alex Molcan or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-11 14:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Molcan and Taylor Fritz in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex Molcan' if Alex Molcan advances against Taylor Fritz. This market will resolve to 'Taylor Fritz' if Taylor Fritz advances against Alex Molcan. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh2 linked markets · $3.3K gross
0x37b7…f2372 linked markets · $2 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Taylor Fritz@ 80.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -20.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Taylor Fritz@ 80.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -20.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Taylor Fritz@ 79.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
Latest book event: Taylor Fritz UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $25 → $98 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alex Molcan; negative values favor Taylor Fritz. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlex Molcan · $22.0K
6hTaylor Fritz · $87.7K
24hTaylor Fritz · $134.7K

Alex Molcan price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alex Molcan price. Taylor Fritz fills are converted to the complementary Alex Molcan probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.05¢
VWAP 24h26.31¢▼ below by 26.3pp
VWAP 7d26.31¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alex Molcan price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$3.7K
50¢
$8.2K
45¢
$46.7K
40¢
$23.9K
35¢
$10.9K
30¢
$4.4K
25¢
$33.1K
20¢
$134.7K
15¢
$22.2K
10¢
$1.0K
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$33.2K

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLTaylor Fritz$14.3K@ 99.9¢0x02fd…104c🐋—24 minutes ago
BUYTaylor Fritz$10.2K@ 71.33¢0x02fd…104c🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTaylor Fritz$20.8K@ 80.0¢
9995850x88a6…7e77
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYTaylor Fritz$16.1K@ 79.0¢
9995850x88a6…7e77
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYTaylor Fritz$44.7K@ 80.0¢
9995850x88a6…7e77
🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

999585Taylor Fritz$88.9K
BUY VWAP 79.82¢·4 fills
gq3g31egv1eqTaylor Fritz$15.3K
BUY VWAP 69.99¢·2 fills
VenusianTaylor Fritz$11.1K
BUY VWAP 72.73¢·2 fills
MadridTimeTaylor Fritz$10.9K
BUY VWAP 63.36¢·5 fills
0x076d…8d4cTaylor Fritz$10.3K
BUY VWAP 77.0¢·3 fills
0x02fd…104cTaylor Fritz$10.2K
BUY VWAP 71.33¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.