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Rolex Paris Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Musetti

● quote 147 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $301.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.2MEvent: Rolex Paris Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Musetti

Indicative prices · 147 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.1¢
Alexander Zverev
99.9¢
Lorenzo Musetti
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets43Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 13 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:281 trades$514.8K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 165 min agoofficial metadata 147 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Lorenzo Musetti · $65.8K net·13 wallets(2🐋)·$154.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLLorenzo Musetti$53.4K@ 100¢·robustmst

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$99.9K
tracked
$514.8K

13 verified profitable wallets: Lorenzo Musetti · $65.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +89.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 147 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 165 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 147 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-11 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alexander Zverev and Lorenzo Musetti in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexander Zverev' if Alexander Zverev advances against Lorenzo Musetti. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Musetti' if Lorenzo Musetti advances against Alexander Zverev. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
1990Apolon2 linked markets · $12.3K gross
0xf12f…b30f2 linked markets · $6.6K gross
0xe907…cff62 linked markets · $1.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL Lorenzo Musetti@ 89.0¢3h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Lorenzo Musetti4h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Lorenzo Musetti@ 48.0¢4h ago
15m CONFIRMED +12.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Alexander Zverev DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $22.3K → $12.7K · 16s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alexander Zverev; negative values favor Lorenzo Musetti. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlexander Zverev · $0
6hAlexander Zverev · $99.9K
24hAlexander Zverev · $112.0K

Alexander Zverev price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alexander Zverev price. Lorenzo Musetti fills are converted to the complementary Alexander Zverev probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h41.25¢▼ below by 41.1pp
VWAP 7d41.25¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alexander Zverev price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$3.3K
75¢
$6.3K
70¢
$36.4K
65¢
$117.0K
60¢
$90.4K
55¢
$7.3K
50¢
$317
45¢
$12.6K
40¢
$35.7K
35¢
$2.8K
30¢
$1.2K
25¢
$1.1K
20¢
$17.1K
15¢
$54.8K
10¢
$18.7K
5¢
$17.6K
0¢
← now
$92.4K

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLLorenzo Musetti$11.5K@ 99.9¢
BarracudaSKE0xfa02…8b07
🐋—about 3 hours ago
SELLLorenzo Musetti$53.4K@ 99.9¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 3 hours ago
SELLLorenzo Musetti$11.2K@ 93.0¢
redvinny0x56c9…0d9e
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYLorenzo Musetti$10.3K@ 89.45¢
BarracudaSKE0xfa02…8b07
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYAlexander Zverev$10.9K@ 20.37¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYAlexander Zverev$14.6K@ 69.54¢0x4214…db99🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYLorenzo Musetti$25.1K@ 36.0¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYLorenzo Musetti$15.9K@ 38.0¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYLorenzo Musetti$12.5K@ 37.51¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYLorenzo Musetti$17.4K@ 37.55¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYAlexander Zverev$19.2K@ 66.6¢
Atn0x9f9c…34d9
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYLorenzo Musetti$19.8K@ 34.64¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 4 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set 2 Winner: Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Musetti
—$17.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Alexander Zverev (-3.5) vs Lorenzo Musetti (+3.5)
—$16.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Zverev vs. Musetti: Match O/U 22.5
—$1.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Lorenzo Musetti (-1.5) vs Alexander Zverev (+1.5)
—$594priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Alexander Zverev vs. Lorenzo Musetti: Total Sets O/U 2.5
—$516priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Zverev vs. Musetti: Match O/U 23.5
—$161priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Zverev vs. Musetti: Match O/U 21.5
—$117priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Zverev vs. Musetti: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

juice-fruitLorenzo Musetti$72.5K
BUY VWAP 37.08¢·6 fills
robustmstLorenzo Musetti$24.6K
BUY VWAP 34.42¢·3 fills
AtnAlexander Zverev$19.2K
BUY VWAP 66.6¢·1 fill
dmoralezLorenzo Musetti$18.1K
BUY VWAP 72.27¢·8 fills
0xb985…b70dAlexander Zverev$15.0K
BUY VWAP 56.99¢·2 fills
0x4214…db99Alexander Zverev$14.6K
BUY VWAP 69.54¢·1 fill
LimousinAlexander Zverev$11.7K
BUY VWAP 72.28¢·3 fills
LimousinLorenzo Musetti$11.3K
BUY VWAP 58.55¢·7 fills
0x2c33…0563Alexander Zverev$10.9K
BUY VWAP 20.37¢·1 fill
BarracudaSKELorenzo Musetti$10.3K
BUY VWAP 89.45¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.