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Rolex Paris Masters: Quentin Halys vs Frances Tiafoe

● quote 15s ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $212.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $416.8KEvent: Rolex Paris Masters: Quentin Halys vs Frances Tiafoe

Indicative prices · 15s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

6.5¢
Quentin Halys
93.5¢
Frances Tiafoe
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection23Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets29Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority57Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 10 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:160 trades$189.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 58s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Frances Tiafoe · $10.2K net·10 wallets(1🐋)·$34.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFrances Tiafoe$20.0K@ 90¢·austr

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Frances Tiafoe pressure: $43.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$43.4K
6h
−$24.3K
tracked
$189.0K

10 verified profitable wallets: Frances Tiafoe · $10.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 57

Since latest market sweep: +9.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable BUY price moved 9.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Frances Tiafoe or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-11 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Quentin Halys and Frances Tiafoe in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Quentin Halys' if Quentin Halys advances against Frances Tiafoe. This market will resolve to 'Frances Tiafoe' if Frances Tiafoe advances against Quentin Halys. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Frances Tiafoe4m ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Frances Tiafoe@ 85.0¢25m ago
15m CONFIRMED +4.0pp
Latest book event: Frances Tiafoe UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $683 → $47.6K · 4s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Quentin Halys; negative values favor Frances Tiafoe. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFrances Tiafoe · $43.4K
6hFrances Tiafoe · $24.3K
24hFrances Tiafoe · $24.4K

Quentin Halys price VWAP

Volume-weighted Quentin Halys price. Frances Tiafoe fills are converted to the complementary Quentin Halys probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current6.5¢
VWAP 24h35.38¢▼ below by 28.9pp
VWAP 7d35.38¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Quentin Halys price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$35.6K
70¢
$13.4K
65¢
$224
60¢
$4.5K
55¢
$5.2K
50¢
$1.0K
45¢
$2.7K
40¢
$19.1K
35¢
$8
30¢
$0
25¢
$9.2K
20¢
$4.8K
15¢
$9.6K
10¢
$36.2K
5¢
← now
$47.4K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFrances Tiafoe$14.8K@ 87.0¢
9995850x88a6…7e77
🐋—14 minutes ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$20.0K@ 90.09¢
austr0x1245…e0af
🐋—18 minutes ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Game Spread: Frances Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Quentin Halys (+1.5)
87.5¢$1.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Quentin Halys vs Frances Tiafoe
0.05¢$784priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Halys vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 21.5
99.95¢$380priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Halys vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5
99.55¢$103priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Quentin Halys vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 2.5
99.95¢$64priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Quentin Halys (-1.5) vs Frances Tiafoe (+1.5)
0.45¢$25priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Halys vs. Tiafoe: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.05¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Halys vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 22.5
99.95¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

austrFrances Tiafoe$20.0K
BUY VWAP 90.09¢·1 fill
999585Frances Tiafoe$14.8K
BUY VWAP 87.0¢·1 fill
redvinnyFrances Tiafoe$14.7K
BUY VWAP 77.88¢·5 fills
redvinnyQuentin Halys$11.2K
BUY VWAP 74.60¢·5 fills
LightParadoxQuentin Halys$10.1K
BUY VWAP 69.91¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.