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Set Handicap: Hugo Dellien (-1.5) vs Joaquin Aguilar (+1.5)

● quote 699 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $192Event: Guayaquil: Joaquin Aguilar vs Hugo Dellien

Indicative prices · 699 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

—
Hugo Dellien
—
Joaquin Aguilar
—
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 54%
24h sample:1 trades$33 trackedsource coverage 17%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 175 min agoofficial metadata 80 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$33
tracked
$33

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 54% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Indicative price is unavailable.
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 699 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-08 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Hugo Dellien" if Hugo Dellien wins by 2 or more sets than Joaquin Aguilar, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Joaquin Aguilar."

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Hugo Dellien can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Joaquin Aguilar."

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Hugo Dellien and Joaquin Aguilar in the Guayaquil, originally scheduled for November 1, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Hugo Dellien" if Hugo Dellien wins by 2 or more sets than Joaquin Aguilar, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Joaquin Aguilar." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Hugo Dellien can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Joaquin Aguilar." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Hugo Dellien; negative values favor Joaquin Aguilar. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHugo Dellien · $0
6hJoaquin Aguilar · $33
24hJoaquin Aguilar · $33

Hugo Dellien price VWAP

Volume-weighted Hugo Dellien price. Joaquin Aguilar fills are converted to the complementary Hugo Dellien probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current—
VWAP 24h57.0¢
VWAP 7d57.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Hugo Dellien price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$33
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.