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Rolex Paris Masters: Denis Shapovalov vs Karen Khachanov

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $257.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $366.6KEvent: Rolex Paris Masters: Denis Shapovalov vs Karen Khachanov

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

20.5¢
Denis Shapovalov
79.5¢
Karen Khachanov
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection17Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets74Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority66Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 14 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:131 trades$145.2K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Karen Khachanov · $8.5K net·14 wallets·$11.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKaren Khachanov$36.9K@ 82¢·999585

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Karen Khachanov SETUP
What the tape says

Karen Khachanov pressure: $24.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$24.3K
6h
−$78.5K
tracked
$145.2K

14 verified profitable wallets: Karen Khachanov · $8.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 66

Since latest large flow: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Karen Khachanov or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-09 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Denis Shapovalov and Karen Khachanov in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 2, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Denis Shapovalov' if Denis Shapovalov advances against Karen Khachanov. This market will resolve to 'Karen Khachanov' if Karen Khachanov advances against Denis Shapovalov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
MaxFomo2 linked markets · $6 gross
0xe1f4…f5a02 linked markets · $2 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Karen Khachanov@ 81.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +2.0pp1h CONFIRMED +8.0pp
Latest book event: Karen Khachanov DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $71.4K → $73.0K · 8s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Denis Shapovalov; negative values favor Karen Khachanov. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hKaren Khachanov · $24.3K
6hKaren Khachanov · $78.5K
24hKaren Khachanov · $83.5K

Denis Shapovalov price VWAP

Volume-weighted Denis Shapovalov price. Karen Khachanov fills are converted to the complementary Denis Shapovalov probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current20.5¢
VWAP 24h22.19¢▼ below by 1.7pp
VWAP 7d22.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Denis Shapovalov price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$2.4K
35¢
$27.2K
30¢
$7.5K
25¢
$7.1K
20¢
← now
$9.8K
15¢
$65.5K
10¢
$19.9K
5¢
$5.8K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYKaren Khachanov$36.9K@ 82.0¢
9995850x88a6…7e77
🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set 2 Winner: Denis Shapovalov vs Karen Khachanov
29.0¢$1.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Karen Khachanov (-2.5) vs Denis Shapovalov (+2.5)
91.0¢$851priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Shapovalov vs. Khachanov: Match O/U 23.5
30.5¢$368priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Denis Shapovalov vs. Karen Khachanov: Total Sets O/U 2.5
28.5¢$228priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Shapovalov vs. Khachanov: Match O/U 22.5
30.5¢$129priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Karen Khachanov (-1.5) vs Denis Shapovalov (+1.5)
71.5¢$83priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Shapovalov vs. Khachanov: Match O/U 21.5
99.5¢$11priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Shapovalov vs. Khachanov: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
99.95¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

999585Karen Khachanov$37.0K
BUY VWAP 82.00¢·2 fills
LightParadoxKaren Khachanov$10.0K
BUY VWAP 79.97¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.