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Game Spread: Karen Khachanov (-2.5) vs Denis Shapovalov (+2.5)

● quote 47 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $851Event: Rolex Paris Masters: Denis Shapovalov vs Karen Khachanov

Polymarket indicative prices · 10 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

20.0¢
Karen Khachanov
80.0¢
Denis Shapovalov
—
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection61Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets66Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:5 trades$24 trackedsource coverage 3%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 10 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Denis Shapovalov · $3 net·2 wallets·$3 gross

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$15
6h
−$21
tracked
$24

2 verified profitable wallets: Denis Shapovalov · $3 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Executable quote is 47 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-09 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Karen Khachanov" if Karen Khachanov wins 2.5 or more total games than Denis Shapovalov in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for November 2, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Denis Shapovalov".

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Karen Khachanov could no longer have finished 2.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Denis Shapovalov".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Karen Khachanov" if Karen Khachanov wins 2.5 or more total games than Denis Shapovalov in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for November 2, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Denis Shapovalov". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Karen Khachanov could no longer have finished 2.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Denis Shapovalov". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
MaxFomo2 linked markets · $6 gross
0xe1f4…f5a02 linked markets · $2 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Karen Khachanov; negative values favor Denis Shapovalov. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDenis Shapovalov · $15
6hDenis Shapovalov · $21
24hDenis Shapovalov · $21

Karen Khachanov price VWAP

Volume-weighted Karen Khachanov price. Denis Shapovalov fills are converted to the complementary Karen Khachanov probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current20.0¢
VWAP 24h34.26¢▼ below by 14.3pp
VWAP 7d34.26¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Karen Khachanov price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$6
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$18
25¢
$0
20¢
← now
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Rolex Paris Masters: Denis Shapovalov vs Karen Khachanov
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Shapovalov vs. Khachanov: Match O/U 22.5
99.95¢$154priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Shapovalov vs. Khachanov: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
99.95¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.