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O/U 2.5 Rounds

Sports→Combat SportsCloses: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $3.6KEvent: UFC 334: Jared Gordon vs. Melquizael Costa (Lightweight, Early Prelims)

Polymarket indicative prices · 1 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

50.0¢
Over
50.0¢
Under
—
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection40Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets48Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:6 trades$159 trackedsource coverage 4%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 17 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Under · $43 net·3 wallets·$89 gross

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$63
6h
−$45
tracked
$159

3 verified profitable wallets: Under · $43 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 17 minutes old.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-15 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•Each market will resolve to "Over" if the fight between Jared Gordon and Melquizael Costa at UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, scheduled for November 14, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold.

•Each market will resolve to "Under" if the fight does not last beyond the listed round threshold.

Read full resolution rules

Each market will resolve to "Over" if the fight between Jared Gordon and Melquizael Costa at UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, scheduled for November 14, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold. Each market will resolve to "Under" if the fight does not last beyond the listed round threshold. For example: "Over 2.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 3. "Under 2.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 3. If the fight ends exactly at the threshold, it will resolve "50-50." If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond November 28, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x076d…8d4c2 linked markets · $4.8K gross
0x1183…bacf2 linked markets · $95 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hUnder · $63
6hUnder · $45
24hUnder · $109

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.0¢
VWAP 24h43.13¢▲ above by 6.9pp
VWAP 7d43.13¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$0
45¢
$5
40¢
$153
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.