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Set 2 Winner: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz

Sports→TennisSettlement: Carlos AlcarazLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $7.8KEvent: Erste Bank Open: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz
0.0¢
Tommy Paul payout
100.0¢
Carlos Alcaraz payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:2 trades$1.6K trackedsource coverage 21%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 97 min agoofficial metadata 40 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLCarlos Alcaraz$1.5K@ 99¢·Al-F0nce

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Carlos Alcaraz. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-11-06 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Tommy Paul” if Tommy Paul wins set 2. It will resolve to “Carlos Alcaraz” if Carlos Alcaraz wins set 2.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Carlos Alcaraz in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 30, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Tommy Paul” if Tommy Paul wins set 2. It will resolve to “Carlos Alcaraz” if Carlos Alcaraz wins set 2. If the match begins but set 2 is not completed with a winner determined (including the match ending before set 2 is reached), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by November 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 41m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 41m ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
neutralwave233 linked markets · $939 gross
0x24ce…da462 linked markets · $4 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Tommy Paul; negative values favor Carlos Alcaraz. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTommy Paul · $1.5K
6hTommy Paul · $1.3K
24hTommy Paul · $1.3K

Tommy Paul price VWAP

Volume-weighted Tommy Paul price. Carlos Alcaraz fills are converted to the complementary Tommy Paul probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h4.82¢▼ below by 4.8pp
VWAP 7d4.82¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Tommy Paul price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$136
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$1.5K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.