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Swiss Indoors Basel: Holger Rune vs Valentin Vacherot

● quote 52 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $1.2MOfficial 24h Vol: $677.3KEvent: Swiss Indoors Basel: Holger Rune vs Valentin Vacherot

Indicative prices · 52 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

4.0¢
Holger Rune
99.9¢
Valentin Vacherot
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly23Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets10Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:191 trades$287.2K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 53 min agoofficial metadata 52 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Holger Rune · $5.8K net·11 wallets·$60.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLValentin Vacherot$33.4K@ 100¢·kkookkoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Holger Rune pressure: $1.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.9K
6h
+$15.4K
tracked
$287.2K

11 verified profitable wallets: Holger Rune · $5.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +4.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 52 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 53 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 52 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Holger Rune or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-06 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Holger Rune and Valentin Vacherot in the Swiss Indoors Basel, originally scheduled for October 30, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Holger Rune' if Holger Rune advances against Valentin Vacherot. This market will resolve to 'Valentin Vacherot' if Valentin Vacherot advances against Holger Rune. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xd6f9…e95d2 linked markets · $1.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Valentin Vacherot@ 96.0¢2h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Holger Rune DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $5.0K → $1.5K · 9s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Holger Rune; negative values favor Valentin Vacherot. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHolger Rune · $1.9K
6hHolger Rune · $15.4K
24hHolger Rune · $26.8K

Holger Rune price VWAP

Volume-weighted Holger Rune price. Valentin Vacherot fills are converted to the complementary Holger Rune probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current4.0¢
VWAP 24h29.39¢▼ below by 25.4pp
VWAP 7d29.39¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Holger Rune price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$4.9K
60¢
$19.2K
55¢
$44.4K
50¢
$33.7K
45¢
$8.4K
40¢
$3.2K
35¢
$0
30¢
$9.1K
25¢
$22.8K
20¢
$14.7K
15¢
$2.7K
10¢
$51.6K
5¢
$25.1K
0¢
← now
$47.4K

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLValentin Vacherot$33.4K@ 99.9¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLValentin Vacherot$16.6K@ 71.73¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYHolger Rune$11.6K@ 58.24¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYValentin Vacherot$11.0K@ 48.7¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 4 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set Handicap: Holger Rune (-1.5) vs Valentin Vacherot (+1.5)
—$15.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rune vs. Vacherot: Match O/U 23.5
—$3.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Holger Rune vs. Valentin Vacherot: Total Sets O/U 2.5
—$347priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rune vs. Vacherot: Match O/U 22.5
—$23priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Valentin Vacherot (-0.5) vs Holger Rune (+0.5)
—$12priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rune vs. Vacherot: Match O/U 21.5
—$8priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FURIA (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs
26.5¢$1.5Mpriority66Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Vitality (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs
—$1.1Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesValentin Vacherot$26.6K
BUY VWAP 89.08¢·5 fills
0x076d…8d4cHolger Rune$18.4K
BUY VWAP 49.24¢·7 fills
kkookkooValentin Vacherot$13.7K
BUY VWAP 47.98¢·2 fills
ferrariChampions2026Holger Rune$12.0K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·2 fills
HomeRunHazardValentin Vacherot$11.9K
BUY VWAP 85.96¢·5 fills
KkunnHolger Rune$11.6K
BUY VWAP 58.24¢·1 fill
redvinnyValentin Vacherot$10.2K
BUY VWAP 83.87¢·7 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.