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Set Handicap: Holger Rune (-1.5) vs Valentin Vacherot (+1.5)

● quote 100 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $15.1KEvent: Swiss Indoors Basel: Holger Rune vs Valentin Vacherot

Indicative prices · 100 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

—
Holger Rune
—
Valentin Vacherot
—
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%
24h sample:6 trades$10.7K trackedsource coverage 71%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 138 min agoofficial metadata 105 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYValentin Vacherot$3.9K@ 100¢·Novelty8

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$7.7K
tracked
$10.7K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Indicative price is unavailable.
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Executable quote is 100 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 138 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-06 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Holger Rune" if Holger Rune wins by 2 or more sets than Valentin Vacherot, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Valentin Vacherot."

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Holger Rune can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Valentin Vacherot."

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Holger Rune and Valentin Vacherot in the Swiss Indoors Basel, originally scheduled for October 30, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Holger Rune" if Holger Rune wins by 2 or more sets than Valentin Vacherot, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Valentin Vacherot." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Holger Rune can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Valentin Vacherot." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by November 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xd6f9…e95d2 linked markets · $1.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Holger Rune; negative values favor Valentin Vacherot. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHolger Rune · $0
6hValentin Vacherot · $7.7K
24hValentin Vacherot · $7.7K

Holger Rune price VWAP

Volume-weighted Holger Rune price. Valentin Vacherot fills are converted to the complementary Holger Rune probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current—
VWAP 24h10.72¢
VWAP 7d10.72¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Holger Rune price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$1.1K
25¢
$2.7K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$6.9K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Swiss Indoors Basel: Holger Rune vs Valentin Vacherot
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Holger Rune vs. Valentin Vacherot: Total Sets O/U 2.5
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.