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Erste Bank Open: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz

● quote 25 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $262.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $698.7KEvent: Erste Bank Open: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz

Indicative prices · 25 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.1¢
Tommy Paul
99.9¢
Carlos Alcaraz
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets64Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:173 trades$267.1K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 34 min agoofficial metadata 29 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Carlos Alcaraz · $86.0K net·11 wallets(3🐋)·$133.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCarlos Alcaraz$26.5K@ 77¢·Kch-Temp

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Tommy Paul pressure: $5.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$5.7K
6h
−$27.7K
tracked
$267.1K

11 verified profitable wallets: Carlos Alcaraz · $86.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +31.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 25 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 34 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 31.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Tommy Paul or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-06 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Carlos Alcaraz in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 30, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tommy Paul' if Tommy Paul advances against Carlos Alcaraz. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Tommy Paul. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
neutralwave233 linked markets · $939 gross
0x24ce…da462 linked markets · $4 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Carlos Alcaraz2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Carlos Alcaraz@ 69.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +18.0pp1h CONFIRMED +11.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Carlos Alcaraz@ 77.0¢8h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp6h INVALIDATED -4.0pp
Latest book event: Tommy Paul DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $14.2K → $3.0K · 6s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Tommy Paul; negative values favor Carlos Alcaraz. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTommy Paul · $5.7K
6hCarlos Alcaraz · $27.7K
24hCarlos Alcaraz · $64.2K

Tommy Paul price VWAP

Volume-weighted Tommy Paul price. Carlos Alcaraz fills are converted to the complementary Tommy Paul probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h18.22¢▼ below by 18.1pp
VWAP 7d18.22¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Tommy Paul price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$34.2K
30¢
$16.9K
25¢
$14.6K
20¢
$59.7K
15¢
$52.7K
10¢
$27.3K
5¢
$5.2K
0¢
← now
$56.5K

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$10.0K@ 99.9¢
Paul9739730xa108…abd3
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLCarlos Alcaraz$14.5K@ 96.73¢
prabam0xad82…1623
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$20.8K@ 63.84¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$26.5K@ 77.0¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—about 9 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Kch-TempCarlos Alcaraz$26.5K
BUY VWAP 77.0¢·1 fill
0x076d…8d4cCarlos Alcaraz$20.8K
BUY VWAP 63.84¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesCarlos Alcaraz$20.6K
BUY VWAP 83.74¢·10 fills
Paul973973Carlos Alcaraz$16.7K
BUY VWAP 98.62¢·4 fills
HomeRunHazardCarlos Alcaraz$16.4K
BUY VWAP 84.38¢·5 fills
dmoralezCarlos Alcaraz$10.7K
BUY VWAP 75.81¢·7 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.