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Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Politics→Geopolitics→Settlement: NOLiquidity: $378.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.5MEvent: Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
0.0¢
YES payout
100.0¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $45.3K net·19 wallets(1🐋)·$85.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$15.1K@ 95¢·Parz1vaI

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome NO. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2027-04-01 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Parz1vaI6 linked markets · $143.1K gross
aenews24 linked markets · $79.1K gross
Do-Not-Redeem2 linked markets · $68.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY YES@ 49.3¢2d ago
15m STALLED -2.7pp1h INVALIDATED -27.7pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 59.9¢2d ago
15m INVALIDATED -24.3pp1h INVALIDATED -49.4pp6h INVALIDATED -29.4pp24h UNAVAILABLE
MARKET SWEEPBUY YES@ 69.4¢2d ago
15m INVALIDATED -36.0pp1h INVALIDATED -58.9pp6h INVALIDATED -38.1pp24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 94.9¢4d ago
15m STALLED -0.6pp1h STALLED -0.8pp6h STALLED -0.1pp24h STALLED -0.4pp

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hNO · $21.9K
24hYES · $18.3K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h29.7¢▼ below by 29.7pp
VWAP 7d27.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$1.3K
65¢
$1.4K
60¢
$14.4K
55¢
$17.5K
50¢
$1.2K
45¢
$27.0K
40¢
$14.8K
35¢
$45.9K
30¢
$25.5K
25¢
$92.4K
20¢
$77.8K
15¢
$73.8K
10¢
$11.9K
5¢
$17.3K
0¢
← now
$52.0K

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$14.7K@ 70.1¢
dromedaryy0x6575…b198
🐋—2 days ago
BUYYES$10.7K@ 20.1¢
googol-plex0x2722…1dfe
🐋—2 days ago
BUYNO$15.0K@ 95.2¢
BigScience0x187f…5fee
🐋—4 days ago
BUYNO$15.1K@ 95.0¢
Parz1vaI0xb100…6461
🐋—10 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

aenews2Yes$32.8K
BUY VWAP 46.2¢·6 fills
Parz1vaINo$32.0K
BUY VWAP 79.3¢·9 fills
bigbonderNo$24.4K
BUY VWAP 74.1¢·9 fills
s7dbandbdsYes$22.1K
BUY VWAP 28.7¢·8 fills
googol-plexYes$21.4K
BUY VWAP 19.7¢·6 fills
aenews2No$19.0K
BUY VWAP 80.1¢·4 fills
BigScienceNo$16.1K
BUY VWAP 90.6¢·2 fills
dromedaryyNo$14.7K
BUY VWAP 70.1¢·1 fill
paddaaNo$14.4K
BUY VWAP 73.4¢·4 fills
keyneskYes$13.8K
BUY VWAP 20.6¢·7 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.