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Ningbo: Khumoyun Sultanov vs Naoya Honda

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $25.2KEvent: Ningbo: Khumoyun Sultanov vs Naoya Honda

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.05¢
Khumoyun Sultanov
99.95¢
Naoya Honda
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection44Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets26Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution69Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 71%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:41 trades$5.9K trackedsource coverage 24%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 23 min agoofficial metadata 14 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Naoya Honda · $313 net·4 wallets·$1.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLKhumoyun Sultanov$2.3K@ 81¢·thestingsnake

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Naoya Honda pressure: $2.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.6K
6h
−$2.6K
tracked
$5.9K

4 verified profitable wallets: Naoya Honda · $313 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 71% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 23 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Naoya Honda or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-02 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Khumoyun Sultanov and Naoya Honda in the Ningbo, China, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 25, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Khumoyun Sultanov' if Khumoyun Sultanov advances against Naoya Honda. This market will resolve to 'Naoya Honda' if Naoya Honda advances against Khumoyun Sultanov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Naoya Honda DOWN 7.5pp · near-book depth $235 → $8.0K · 14s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Khumoyun Sultanov; negative values favor Naoya Honda. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNaoya Honda · $2.6K
6hNaoya Honda · $2.6K
24hNaoya Honda · $2.6K

Khumoyun Sultanov price VWAP

Volume-weighted Khumoyun Sultanov price. Naoya Honda fills are converted to the complementary Khumoyun Sultanov probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.05¢
VWAP 24h57.19¢▼ below by 57.1pp
VWAP 7d57.19¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Khumoyun Sultanov price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$119
80¢
$3.3K
75¢
$36
70¢
$1
65¢
$3
60¢
$112
55¢
$102
50¢
$30
45¢
$5
40¢
$0
35¢
$3
30¢
$21
25¢
$756
20¢
$533
15¢
$77
10¢
$864
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.