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Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

● quote just now
Sports→SoccerCloses: 3 monthsLiquidity: $97.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $93.2KEvent: Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
66.5¢
YES
33.6¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly3Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 79%💡 26 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:341 trades$52.9K trackedsource coverage 57%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 12 min agoofficial metadata just now
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $10.4K net·26 wallets·$19.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$9.2K@ 48¢·sfedk

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$172
6h
+$9.0K
tracked
$52.9K

26 verified profitable wallets: NO · $10.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 79% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 12 minutes old.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.francefootball.fr/
Outcome meaning

•If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 19d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Bigggggggg10 linked markets · $29.5K gross
Lordpengu2 linked markets · $28.8K gross
balthazar10 linked markets · $23.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY YES@ 62.7¢54d ago
15m STALLED -0.6pp1h STALLED -0.6pp6h STALLED -0.6pp24h STALLED -1.8pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 62.7¢54d ago
15m STALLED -0.6pp1h STALLED -0.6pp6h STALLED -0.6pp24h STALLED -1.8pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 61.4¢57d ago
15m STALLED -0.2pp1h STALLED -0.2pp6h STALLED +0.7pp24h STALLED -0.4pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 55.2¢67d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED +0.6pp6h STALLED +0.3pp24h STALLED +2.3pp
Latest book event: YES UP 4.2pp · near-book depth $1.5K → $2.1K · 20s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $172
6hYES · $9.0K
24hYES · $35.3K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current66.5¢
VWAP 24h63.4¢▲ above by 3.0pp
VWAP 7d55.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
← now
$25.5K
60¢
$71.3K
55¢
$78.4K
50¢
$65.0K
45¢
$117.0K
40¢
$58.5K
35¢
$40.2K
30¢
$11.1K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$28.1K@ 61.8¢
owenliang6660x792f…328a
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYYES$18.9K@ 62.1¢
owenliang6660x792f…328a
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYYES$13.5K@ 60.3¢
Richidd0x934a…a684
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYYES$26.8K@ 55.1¢
Richidd0x934a…a684
🐋—2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

LordpenguYes$25.6K
BUY VWAP 56.9¢·59 fills
bisoussYes$24.6K
BUY VWAP 51.8¢·16 fills
wallet555Yes$14.1K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·4 fills
walletwallet93Yes$11.0K
BUY VWAP 65.6¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.